有色板块研发报告

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price is expected to continue rising, but there is a risk of correction if the macro - environment weakens. It is recommended to hold long positions at low levels [4][126] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In February 2026, the nickel price first declined and then rose, with a narrowing trading range, reaching a low of 130,000 and a high of less than 145,000. The market trading logic is dominated by supply disturbances of Indonesian nickel products [3][9] - Before the Spring Festival, funds flowed out for risk - avoidance, causing the price to correct. After the festival, downstream enterprises gradually resumed work, market sentiment improved, and funds returned to the nickel market, resulting in a pattern of increasing volume and price [3][9] 3.1.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Go long after a correction and stabilization - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [6] 3.2 Second Part: Market Review - The situation is the same as the market review in the first part, with the nickel price showing a trend of first decline and then rise in February 2026, and being affected by Indonesian supply disturbances and the Spring Festival [9] 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Situation 3.3.1 Seasonal Changes in Refined Nickel Production - As of February 13, 2026, the global visible inventory reached 364,000 tons, with LME inventory at 287,000 tons and SMM's six - region social inventory at 74,500 tons, driving the increase in global inventory [12] - In January 2026, refined nickel production increased by 26% year - on - year to 37,700 tons, reaching a record high. In February, it decreased by 5% month - on - month to about 35,800 tons due to the Spring Festival. In March, it is expected to continue reaching a new high [21] - In January 2026, China's net imports of refined nickel are expected to continue increasing. Preliminary estimates show that the supply of refined nickel in January was about 50,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22% [21][22] - In January 2026, pure nickel consumption decreased by 2% year - on - year to 22,600 tons. In February, domestic refined nickel consumption declined due to the Spring Festival. It is expected to gradually recover in March [22][25] 3.3.2 Stainless Steel: Insufficient Low - cost Raw Materials and Off - season De - stocking - Price Increase of Nickel Ore and Ferronickel: In February 2026, Indonesia's nickel ore production quota was significantly reduced by 29% - 31% compared to 2025, aiming to support the nickel price and strengthen its pricing power. The quota of the largest nickel mine, PT Weda Bay Nickel, was cut by over 70%. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is expected to be tight, and the prices of nickel ore and ferronickel have risen [33][35] - Cost Inversion and Production Cut Pressure for Steel Mills: From January to February 2026, the combined stainless - steel crude steel production of China and India was 7.059 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. In February, domestic stainless - steel supply decreased significantly due to the Spring Festival and raw - material supply contraction. It is expected to gradually recover in March, but the recovery will be limited [48] - Market Expectation for Two Sessions Policies: In February 2026, the global macro - environment was "divergent recovery and loose policy". Domestic macro - policies focused on stabilizing growth, and overseas economies had an increased expectation of policy turning. The market is looking forward to policies from the Two Sessions [67] 3.3.3 Strong Ternary Demand in the Off - season - Rising Price of Nickel Sulfate: In February 2026, a landslide occurred at a nickel processing center in the Indonesian Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), affecting MHP production. It is expected to reduce MHP by 10,000 - 15,000 metal tons, strengthening the supply contraction expectation and supporting the nickel price [85][86] - Off - season in the New Energy Vehicle Market: In January 2026, China's new energy vehicle production and sales increased year - on - year, but the growth rate slowed down. In February, the domestic market showed seasonal decline, but the penetration rate remained stable. Overseas markets slowed down due to policy changes, industrial - chain shortages, and cost pressures [100][101][112] - Resilience in Power Batteries: In January 2026, the production of power cells increased by 37% year - on - year. Although the production of ternary power cells decreased, the increase in single - vehicle battery capacity offset the pressure of sales decline. The production of nickel sulfate, ternary precursors, and ternary cathode materials all increased year - on - year [115][117] 3.4 Fourth Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Future Outlook: The medium - to - long - term upward trend of the non - ferrous sector has not ended. In March, demand will increase significantly month - on - month, but the overall supply of primary nickel will still be tight. Nickel prices are expected to continue rising, but there is a risk of correction [126] - Strategy Recommendation: - Unilateral: Adopt a strategy of going long after a correction - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [127]