原油3月报-20260227

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February 2026, affected by the geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, international oil prices showed a strong and volatile pattern. The market priced in the possibility of an Iranian supply disruption, with Brent crude rising above $70 per barrel, and the current risk premium estimated to be as high as $8 - $12 per barrel. The WTI crude futures price closed at $65.42 per barrel on February 25, up about 7.9% from the same period last month, and Brent crude futures closed at $70.85 per barrel, up about 8% [4][8]. - In the short - term, the geopolitical situation will still dominate the market, and oil prices may remain volatile and strong. For the whole year of 2026, the market will face a re - balance between geopolitical risk premiums and global supply - demand fundamentals. The OPEC+ production policy and increased production in the Americas may bring supply surplus pressure, while seasonal demand recovery and global restocking may provide upward momentum [9]. - The crude oil surplus pattern is difficult to be falsified, and there is still pressure to accumulate inventory. Geopolitical risks are the main driving force for the upward movement of oil prices. The Brent price is expected to fluctuate in the range of $65 - $72 per barrel this month, with a pattern of high at the beginning and low at the end, and the downward risk mainly comes from the extrusion of geopolitical premiums [4][50]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In February 2026, due to the geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, international oil prices showed a strong and volatile pattern. The market priced in the possibility of an Iranian supply disruption, with Brent crude rising above $70 per barrel, and the current risk premium estimated to be as high as $8 - $12 per barrel. The WTI crude futures price closed at $65.42 per barrel on February 25, up about 7.9% from the same period last month, and Brent crude futures closed at $70.85 per barrel, up about 8% [4][8]. - Geopolitical risks are the core driving force this month. The US's increased pressure on Iran's nuclear issue, increased military deployments, and the repeated prospects of negotiations have led to repeated concerns about supply disruptions, driving short - term event - driven rebounds. Although the global supply surplus pressure persists, OPEC+ maintaining the policy of suspending production increases provides some support [4][8]. 2. Supply Overview - OPEC: In January 2026, OPEC's crude oil production was 28.453 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 135,000 barrels per day. The main production cuts came from Iran (- 81,000 barrels per day), Nigeria (- 19,000 barrels per day), and Venezuela (- 87,000 barrels per day). Iraq increased production by 38,000 barrels per day, and Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait increased production by 13,000 barrels per day, 14,000 barrels per day, and 5,000 barrels per day respectively [13]. - OPEC+: OPEC+ plans to hold a regular meeting on March 1st to evaluate the production policy for the next month, and it is expected to maintain the production level in March. According to Reuters, OPEC is inclined to resume a small - scale production increase from April 2026, which may be related to the current strong price and the start of the summer demand peak. It is expected that by the end of 2026, OPEC will end the current production cut plan of 1.65 million barrels per day, and the supply will reach a high point. The subsequent supply increase is mainly expected to come from four Middle Eastern countries, with a total supply increase of about 1 million barrels per day [16]. - US: As of the week of February 20, the number of active US crude oil rigs was 409, unchanged from the previous week and slightly lower than the previous month. US crude oil production was 13.702 million barrels per day, a slight month - on - month decrease of 33,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of about 200,000 barrels per day. The EIA expects the average US crude oil production to be 13.6 million barrels per day in 2026, the same as in 2025, and to drop to 13.3 million barrels per day in 2027 [19]. - Russia: As of February 22, Russia's average crude oil shipments in the four - week period were 3.44 million barrels per day, slightly up from the previous period and the fifth consecutive week of growth, but still about 420,000 barrels per day lower than the peak before Christmas. The UK announced new sanctions against Moscow, targeting 175 companies in the 2Rivers oil network [21]. - Iran: The confrontation between the US and Iran has directly driven the high volatility of the crude oil market through geopolitical risk premiums. The two sides are conducting military deployments and diplomatic negotiations at the same time. The current situation is at a crossroads between war and peace. The core contradictions between the two sides have expanded from the nuclear issue to broader issues such as Iran's missile program, regional influence, and the "absolute security" sought by the US and Israel. The possibility of the US launching a military strike on Iran in the long - term has increased significantly. If the situation escalates to military confrontation, it may lead to supply disruptions and a sharp rise in oil prices. In January, Iran's crude oil production was about 3.3 million barrels per day, and exports increased from 1.38 million barrels per day last month to about 1.6 million barrels per day [24][26]. 3. Demand Overview - US: In February, US gasoline demand bottomed out and rebounded, with demand around 8.484 million barrels per day at the end of the month, and the demand level was in a neutral state in the past five - year range. US gasoline inventories have been accumulating since early January, exceeding the seasonal level, with a year - on - year increase of 1%, and then falling back to around 250 million barrels in late February. US distillate demand also increased seasonally in February, with the demand level at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years. Distillate inventories declined slightly, and the destocking speed was relatively limited, with inventories around 120 million barrels at the end of February [29]. - China: In February, the operating rate of domestic refineries increased slightly. The operating rate of major refineries rose from 80.02% at the end of January to around 82.17%, which is at the historical average. The independent refineries changed little from the previous month. The domestic refined oil market closely follows the high - frequency fluctuations of crude oil. Affected by the post - poned demand, the supply and demand sides show structural differentiation characteristics. After the Spring Festival holiday, the performance of gasoline and diesel in Central China was weaker than expected, breaking the gasoline - diesel linkage rule. Gasoline is stronger than diesel, and the pattern of strong gasoline and weak diesel may continue in the first quarter [41]. 4. Profit and Valuation - In the profit aspect, in the past month, the cracking profit of overseas refined oil has shown a mild recovery from the low point. After mid - February, the refinery maintenance season and seasonal demand have become the main supporting factors. Diesel cracking is relatively strong and provides the main support, while gasoline cracking is weak or has limited recovery, so the recovery of the composite cracking is mainly driven by diesel. The strength of diesel is mainly due to the increased demand for heating oil in the northeastern US in the late winter, the maintenance of multiple devices in the US, Asia, and the Middle East, and the restricted heavy - oil exports [43]. - The market shows a complex pattern of "weak demand, strong supply, high inventory, and tense geopolitics". The IEA expects global oil demand to increase by 850,000 barrels per day in 2026, slightly higher than the 770,000 barrels per day in 2025, mainly contributed by non - OECD countries, especially China, India, and Southeast Asia. The growth driver has shifted from transportation fuels in 2025 to petrochemical raw materials in 2026. The supply is expected to increase by 2.4 million barrels per day to 108.6 million barrels per day in the whole year, with the increase evenly shared by OPEC+ and non - OPEC+ [47]. 5. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - The crude oil surplus pattern is difficult to be falsified, and there is still pressure to accumulate inventory. In the short - term, the market is speculating on the possibility of the US launching a military strike on Iran. Geopolitical risks are the main driving force for the upward movement of oil prices. The Brent price is expected to fluctuate in the range of $65 - $72 per barrel this month, with a pattern of high at the beginning and low at the end, and the downward risk mainly comes from the extrusion of geopolitical premiums [50]. - Strategy recommendations: - Unilateral: High at the beginning and low at the end. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see.