天然橡胶及20号胶：轮胎小幅增产

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber market in 2026 is expected to face a supply - demand imbalance for the sixth consecutive year, with production growth lower than expected due to various factors such as adverse weather and diseases [17] - The performance and trends of different types of rubber (RU, NR, BR) are affected by multiple factors including inventory changes, production rates, and international market data [3][8][13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions 26 - 02 - 27 - RU主力05合约报收17080点，下跌45点或0.26%，销地WF报收17000 - 17100元/吨等 [1] - NR主力完成换月，05合约报收13865点，下跌45点或0.32%，新加坡TF主力05合约报收200.2点，下跌0.6点或0.30%等 [1] - BR主力完成换月，05合约报收12760点，下跌40点或1.31%，山东地区大庆石化顺丁报收12600元/吨等 [2] 26 - 02 - 26 - RU主力05合约报收17315点，上涨75点或0.44%，销地WF报收17150 - 17250元/吨等 [6] - NR主力04合约报收14055点，上涨75点或0.54%，新加坡TF主力05合约报收201.7点，上涨1.1点或0.55%等 [6] - BR主力04合约报收12880点，下跌240点或1.83%，山东地区大庆石化顺丁报收12800 - 12900元/吨等 [7] 26 - 02 - 25 - RU主力05合约报收17180点，上涨150点或0.88%，销地WF报收16850 - 16950元/吨等 [11] - NR主力04合约报收13930点，上涨135点或0.98%，新加坡TF主力05合约报收200.4点，上涨2.1点或1.06%等 [11] - BR主力04合约报收13115点，下跌45点或0.34%，山东地区大庆石化顺丁报收12800 - 12900元/吨等 [12] 26 - 02 - 24 - RU主力05合约报收16315点，下跌135点或0.82%，日胶主连报收354.5点，节中累计上涨7.4点或2.1%等 [16] - NR主力04合约报收1380点，下跌190点或1.42%，新加坡TF主力05合约报收193.8点，节中累计上涨2.0点或1.0%等 [16] - BR主力04合约报收12590点，下跌190点或1.49%，山东地区大庆石化顺丁报收12500 - 12600元/吨等 [17] Important Information - In January 2026, EU passenger car market sales decreased by 3.9% to 799,625 units. The share of pure - electric vehicles reached 19.3%, hybrid vehicles 38.6%, and the combined share of gasoline and diesel cars dropped to 30.1% [2] - In 2025, US tire imports totaled 28,615 million units, up 4.8% year - on - year. Imports from China decreased by 15%, while those from Thailand increased by 10% [7] - In January 2026, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) were 21.4 million tons, down 10% year - on - year. Exports to China were 7.7 million tons, down 13% [12] - The ANRPC predicts that the global natural rubber market in 2026 will be in short supply for the sixth consecutive year. Production in 2026 is expected to grow by 2.4% to 1,520 million tons [17] Logical Analysis - In February, the ZEW global auto industry index dropped to - 7.2 points, slightly negative for commodities; domestic dry - rubber inventory has been rising for 4 months to 129.7 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3.9% [3] - In January, the domestic auto inventory warning index reached 59.4% for 3 consecutive months, slightly positive for commodities; in December 2025, ANRPC member countries' total production decreased for 2 consecutive months to 1093 million tons, down 10.5% year - on - year [8] - As of the Spring Festival holiday, SHFE RU contract inventory was 12.46 million tons, higher than inventory futures (warehouse receipts) by 1.20 million tons; INE NR contract inventory decreased by 0.4% to 5.26 million tons, down 19.6% year - on - year [18] Trading Strategies 26 - 02 - 27 - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for RU 05 contract; wait and see for NR04 contract, pay attention to the support at 13720 points; try to go long on NR 05 contract with a stop - loss at 13780 points [3] - Arbitrage: Reduce and hold the position of RU2605 - RU2609 (1 - to - 1) at + 130 points [3] - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [3] 26 - 02 - 26 - Unilateral: Hold long positions on RU 05 contract with a stop - loss at 17000 points; try to go long on NR 04 contract with a stop - loss at 13740 points [8] - Arbitrage: Hold the position of RU2605 - RU2609 (1 - to - 1) at + 175 points with a stop - loss at + 130 points [8] - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8] 26 - 02 - 25 - Unilateral: Try to go long on a small scale for RU 05 contract with a stop - loss at 16970 points; hold a wait - and - see attitude for NR 04 contract [13] - Arbitrage: Hold the position of RU2605 - RU2609 (1 - to - 1) at + 155 points with a stop - loss at + 120 points [13] - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [13] 26 - 02 - 24 - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for RU 05 contract, pay attention to the support at 16020 points; hold short positions on NR 04 contract with a stop - loss at 13310 points [18] - Arbitrage: Hold the position of RU2605 - RU2609 (1 - to - 1) at + 120 points with a stop - loss at + 90 points [18] - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [18]