银河期货沥青3月报-20260227

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the asphalt futures market generally followed the trend of crude oil costs but with weaker upward momentum. The price of near - term asphalt was suppressed by factors such as the stagnation of rigid demand during the Spring Festival holiday, and it stabilized with limited increases under the support of cost, low supply, and low inventory. The first - wave drive of the contradiction between the shortage of Venezuelan raw materials and cost increase was realized in early January, and the subsequent expected bullish drive depends on the peak - season demand, while near - term supply increment still exerts pressure [4][10]. - Geopolitical fluctuations have intensified. The asphalt futures market shows a pattern of following the fluctuations of crude oil but with weaker upward momentum. After the Spring Festival, the rigid demand in various regions has not yet started to recover, and the supply of major refineries is expected to increase. The near - term supply - demand fundamentals of asphalt are relatively loose on a month - on - month basis. There are still medium - term expectations of raw material shortages and cost increases. Attention should be paid to the subsequent recovery of demand and raw material consumption [5][42]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In February, the asphalt futures market followed the trend of crude oil costs but with weaker upward momentum. The price of near - term asphalt was suppressed by factors such as the stagnation of rigid demand during the Spring Festival holiday. The first - wave drive of the contradiction between the shortage of Venezuelan raw materials and cost increase was realized in early January, and the subsequent expectations are reflected in the far - term peak - season futures prices of asphalt. The market expects that domestic refineries' low - cost raw material inventories can still be used for 1 to 2 months. The purchase and transaction discounts of Venezuelan crude oil in countries such as India are around - 9 to - 6 US dollars per barrel, with increased costs compared to before the Venezuelan incident. A domestic refinery purchased Canadian Cold Lake oil at a discount of - 5 US dollars per barrel at the end of January, leading to an increase in raw material costs [4][10]. 2. Supply Overview - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, the estimated asphalt production in China from January to February 2026 is about 4.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 170,000 tons or 4%. Among them, the asphalt production of PetroChina refineries from January to February was 640,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 80,000 tons or 15%; that of Sinopec refineries was 860,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 230,000 tons or 21%; that of CNOOC refineries was 420,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 80,000 tons or 25%; and that of local refineries was 2.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 230,000 tons or 11% [14]. - The asphalt production plan of local refineries in February is about 1.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4% compared to the production plan in January (statistics in mid - December), but a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons or 20%. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the user's提货 rhythm was affected, and some refineries mainly produced residual oil due to limited raw material supply, resulting in a certain reduction in asphalt production. However, some refineries have plans to resume production, and most local refineries have stable raw material supply, good asphalt production profits, and the need to deliver previous contracts, which support the overall increase in asphalt production of local refineries both month - on - month and year - on - year [14]. - In 2025, China's total asphalt production was 28.468 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.992 million tons or 12%. Among them, PetroChina increased by 1.333 million tons or 33%, CNOOC increased by 243,000 tons or 13%, local refineries increased by 2.266 million tons or 19%, and Sinopec decreased by 850,000 tons or 12% [15]. - In 2025, China's total asphalt imports were 3.928 million tons, an increase of 465,000 tons or 13.4% compared to 2024. The import volume from South Korea increased significantly, reaching 1.256 million tons, an increase of 378,000 tons compared to 2024. The import from the UAE still accounted for the largest proportion and increased by 193,000 tons to 1.398 million tons. The import volume from Iraq also increased significantly by 301,000 tons to 393,000 tons. The import sources from Southeast Asia decreased, while those from Northeast Asia and the Middle East increased [17]. 3. Demand Overview - In February 2026, the domestic asphalt market demand entered the traditional Spring Festival holiday mode, showing a trend of weakening first and then stabilizing, and gradually recovering after the festival. At the beginning of the month, there was still some rush - construction demand in the South, and the project construction in South China, Southwest Yunnan, and Guizhou was coming to an end, supporting the shipment of social inventories and driving up the price slightly. In the North, the rigid demand basically stagnated, and only stockpiling in warehouses was carried out in Shandong, North China, etc., with few spot transactions. From the middle of the month, the terminal projects and transportation across the country gradually came to a standstill, the market demand dropped to the lowest point, the trading atmosphere was cold, traders and downstream users mostly took holidays and withdrew from the market, and the refineries' shipments slowed down, entering the inventory accumulation stage [26]. - The refineries' shipment volume was at a medium level in the same period. The shipment volume in the week of February 12 was 437,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46,000 tons or 9%, and a year - on - year decrease of 46,000 tons or 10%. - The terminal demand gradually stopped in February due to the Spring Festival, reaching the lowest level of the year. The operating rates of road modified asphalt and waterproofing membrane both dropped to 0% in the week of February 20, a decrease of about more than twenty percentage points compared to the previous month. During the Spring Festival holiday last year (at the end of January), the operating rates also dropped to 0. The capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt and building asphalt also dropped to the lowest levels of the year and were at a low level in the same period [26]. 4. Inventory and Valuation - In February 2026, in the northern regions such as Northeast, North China, and Northwest, winter - storage resources were stably stored in warehouses. In the southern Yangtze River Delta and South China regions, there were continuous arrivals of imported and domestic shipping resources. During the Spring Festival holiday, the storage in social inventories did not completely stop, and the inventory level increased after the festival compared to before. At the beginning of the month, thanks to the support of the rush - construction demand in the South and the short - term shutdown of major refineries in East China, the refineries' inventory dropped to a low level of 23.62%. In the middle and late ten - day periods, as the holiday approached, the demand stagnated, the logistics was restricted, the refineries' shipments generally slowed down, and the inventory began to stabilize and rise. However, the low overall operating rate limited the inventory accumulation range, and the refineries' inventory rate rose to 27.87% at the end of the month [30]. - After the Spring Festival, as downstream projects resume work one after another, the rigid demand will be gradually released, which is beneficial for the social inventories to start the destocking process. The large stock of social inventory resources that arrived during the holiday needs time to be digested in the short term, which may put some pressure on the price. On the refinery side, although some refineries plan to resume production, the initial operating rate will increase slowly, and the current refinery inventory pressure is generally controllable. If the terminal demand recovery falls short of expectations, the refineries' inventory may face the risk of further accumulation. Overall, the market in March will mainly focus on digesting the existing social inventories, and the inventory inflection point may appear in the middle and late ten - day periods [30]. - In terms of the cost side, in February, the Iran conflict continued to ferment, and the crude oil price fluctuated greatly following the attitude of the US - Iran negotiations but showed an upward trend. The oscillation center of the Brent main contract rose from 63 US dollars per barrel in January to about 68 US dollars per barrel. According to the current global market logistics and transaction information of Venezuelan crude oil, the purchase and transaction discounts of countries such as India are around - 9 to - 6 US dollars per barrel, with increased costs compared to before the Venezuelan incident. A domestic refinery purchased Canadian Cold Lake oil at a discount of - 5 US dollars per barrel at the end of January, leading to an increase in raw material costs. As of February 24, the asphalt processing profit was - 199 yuan per ton, a decrease of about 118 yuan per ton or 145% compared to the end of January [32]. - In terms of the basis, the near - term asphalt futures price was suppressed by factors such as the stagnation of rigid demand during the Spring Festival, and its upward amplitude was less than that of crude oil. The raw material shortage and cost increase were mostly priced in the far - term prices, and the near - term asphalt main contract price decreased slightly compared to the previous month. The spot market price remained stable, and the basis increased. The basis in East China increased by 106 to - 68 yuan per ton compared to the end of January; the basis in South China increased by 116 to - 38 yuan per ton; the basis in Shandong increased by 116 to 82 yuan per ton [32][34]. 5. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Geopolitical fluctuations have intensified. The asphalt futures market shows a pattern of following the fluctuations of crude oil but with weaker upward momentum. After the Spring Festival, the rigid demand in various regions has not yet started to recover, and the supply of major refineries is expected to increase. The near - term supply - demand fundamentals of asphalt are relatively loose on a month - on - month basis. There are still medium - term expectations of raw material shortages and cost increases. Attention should be paid to the subsequent recovery of demand and raw material consumption [42]. - Strategy recommendations: - Unilateral: Go long on BU2606 on dips and pay attention to geopolitical risks. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see.