燃料油3月报-20260227

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - sulfur fuel oil's cracking has risen to the same - period high supported by increased market demand and geopolitical supply concerns, but the first - quarter fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand still exist. Attention should be paid to near - term logistics changes in major supply regions such as Iran and Russia. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply remains abundant, and there is no strong economic support compared to natural gas under the cold wave. Geopolitics is the main bullish driver, and cost - side risks should be monitored [5]. - In the context of ongoing geopolitical and macro disturbances, there are still restrictions and concerns regarding fuel oil exports from Russia and Iran, major fuel suppliers. On the demand side, feedstock demand is still supported. Near March, attention should be paid to the start of power - generation import demand in Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The short - term supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil has decreased month - on - month [53]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Market Review - In February, the high - sulfur fuel oil market was mainly driven by supply concerns due to geopolitical turmoil. The situations in Russia and Iran, the two major supply areas, were uncertain. PetroChina's active high - price purchases in the Singapore spot window significantly pushed up the high - sulfur fuel oil spot price. The supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil decreased month - on - month, and its cracking valuation gradually recovered in the second half of the month [4][10][11]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 High - Sulfur Supply - In Russia, due to more refinery shutdowns caused by attacks and poor port weather, high - sulfur exports decreased month - on - month in February. The UK's sanctions on Russia also affected the export. Mexico's high - sulfur exports remained stable in February and are expected to decline marginally in 2026. In the Middle East, high - sulfur exports were basically stable, with a slight decrease. The east - west price difference of high - sulfur fuel oil widened to the highest level since 2022 and is expected to remain high [18][22][26]. 3.2.2 High - Sulfur Demand - High - sulfur marine fuel demand was stably supported, with marginal growth from the steady increase in the number of ships with desulfurization towers. High - sulfur feedstock demand increased slightly month - on - month, and PetroChina's active purchases in the spot window pushed up the cost [33][36]. 3.2.3 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Dangote Refinery's gasoline unit returned to operation in mid - February, and its low - sulfur production and exports are expected to decline month - on - month. Al - Zour Refinery maintained high - level low - sulfur exports. South Sudan's energy facilities gradually resumed supply, and its Dar crude oil exports increased. Low - sulfur demand had no specific drivers, with stable marine fuel demand and no strong substitution demand compared to natural gas [38][40][41]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Geopolitical and macro disturbances continue to affect the fuel oil market. Supply concerns from Russia and Iran persist, while feedstock demand remains supported. Low - sulfur short - term supply pressure has decreased. - Strategy recommendations include: 1. Unilateral: Strong and volatile, buy on dips for FU2605 without chasing highs. 2. Arbitrage: The price range of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates. Enter the FU59 positive spread on dips. Go long on the BU - LU spread on dips. High - sulfur cracking fluctuates at a high level. 3. Options: None [53].