利率债周报：楼市新政冲击债市，利率曲线转为熊陡-20260227

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the interest rate curve has shifted to a bearish steepening pattern due to the impact of the new real - estate policy. The 10Y Treasury bond yield has risen to 1.83%. It is expected that interest - rate bonds will maintain a volatile pattern around the Two Sessions. The 10Y Treasury bond yield's fluctuation range may be within 5bp, and the curve is more likely to steepen. Attention should be focused on short - term and 5Y - nearby varieties [2][19][28] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Important Event Reviews - Financial Data: In January 2026, the year - on - year increase in social financing mainly came from government bond financing. The "good start" of credit was mediocre, and the medium - and long - term financing demand of residents and enterprises was relatively weak. The 1 - month structural interest - rate cut is expected to gradually take effect, but due to the Spring Festival date difference, the year - on - year growth rates of the social financing stock, M1, and M2 in February are expected to decline [2][8][9] 3.2 Funding Prices - The central bank over - renewed 3000 billion yuan of MLF. During the statistical period, the central bank's net injection of funds in the open market was 1.1 trillion yuan, and funding prices remained generally stable. DR007 was maintained below 1.6%, R007 was maintained near 1.6%, and the 3M inter - bank certificate of deposit rate was basically flat [2] 3.3 Primary Market - The issuance scale of special bonds decreased marginally. During the statistical period, 40 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, with an actual issuance total of 698.2 billion yuan. Among them, the issuance scale of Treasury bonds increased, and that of special bonds decreased. As of February 26, 2026, the newly added special bonds from January to February totaled about 800 billion yuan, an increase of about 300 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025, showing an obvious early - issuance characteristic [2][17] 3.4 Secondary Market - The interest - rate curve shifted to a bearish steepening pattern. During the statistical period, interest rates adjusted upwards. On February 25 - 26, the yields of Treasury bonds of all maturities rose, mainly due to the implementation of the new Shanghai real - estate policy. The long - term varieties were more affected, and the 10Y Treasury bond yield rose to 1.83% [2][19] 3.5 Market Outlook - Fundamentals: During the Spring Festival holiday in 2026, the daily average sales revenue of the national consumption - related industries increased by 13.7% compared to the same period of the previous year, and the overall performance of the Spring Festival consumption field was stable [27] - Policy: The Two Sessions will be the main focus in the next stage. About 60% of the 31 provincial - level regions in China have lowered their GDP growth targets for 2026. Most of the regions that disclosed the growth targets for social retail sales and fixed - asset investment have also lowered their targets, which may be beneficial to the bond market. There is no need to be overly pessimistic about the subsequent impact of real - estate - related policies [27] - Funding: As the seasonal factor disturbances subside, funding prices are expected to decline in early March [28]