聚酯产业链2月报：成本支撑增强，格局预期改善-20260227

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The cost support of the polyester industry chain is strengthening, and the pattern is expected to improve [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PX: High Domestic and Overseas Operation Rates, Maintenance Season Approaching - From 2023 - 2025, there was no new PX capacity put into production for three consecutive years. In 2026, new PX capacity is limited, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. If the 300 - million - ton PX plant of Yulong Petrochemical is successfully launched in the second half of the year, PX capacity will reach 48.94 million tons [11] - PX industry profits have led to high domestic and overseas operation rates. In the past two months, the PX - MX spread has been maintained at $160 - 190 per ton, performing better than last year. As of February 26, the domestic PX plant operation rate was 92.4%, and the Asian PX operation rate was 84.9%, higher than the same period last year [11] - Entering March, with the start of the traditional maintenance season, PX plant maintenance at home and abroad will gradually increase, and the PX supply pressure is expected to ease. The second quarter will see a de - stocking pattern for PX [11] 3.2 TA: Inflection Point of the Capacity Cycle, Pattern Expected to Improve - With the end of the industry's capacity expansion, in 2025, a total of 8.7 million tons of new PTA capacity was added. As of now, the PTA capacity base in mainland China has been adjusted to 92.09 million tons. In 2026, there will be a vacuum period for PTA production. The growth rate of downstream polyester capacity continues to slow down, with an expected new capacity of 3.76 million tons in 2026 and a capacity growth rate of 4.17% [23] - After two rounds of surges, the PTA processing margin has been repaired, with the forward contract at 400 - 500 yuan per ton. As of February 26, the PTA operation rate has rebounded to 76.6%, the same as last month. In March - May, PTA plant maintenance will be concentrated. With the restart of several plants, the de - stocking volume in March may be less than that of last year [27][29] - After the Spring Festival, PTA dock arrivals will increase significantly, and inventory has increased significantly. As of the 25th, the PTA social inventory was 2.56 million tons, a significant increase compared to before the festival. The TA basis is weak [29] 3.3 Ethylene Glycol: Continuous Inventory Accumulation, Expected Load Reduction in March - As of the 24th, the MEG port inventory in some major ports in East China was about 982,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47,000 tons. The port inventory has been continuously accumulating, and the coal port inventory is piling up, with the coal price at the origin weakening. The supply and demand of ethylene glycol are both weak [36] - In March, some ethylene glycol plants will undergo maintenance. Although the ethylene glycol supply - demand structure will improve month - on - month, the ethylene glycol production capacity will expand significantly in 2026, and the inventory has been continuously accumulating. The ethylene glycol load is expected to be reduced in March [37] 3.4 Polyester Demand: Moderate Recovery, Expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April" Remain - In February, approaching the Spring Festival, the polyester load decreased. After the festival, the market remains optimistic about the traditional peak season. The polyester bottle - chip processing margin has widened, the short - fiber operation rate remains high, and the long - fiber processing margin has changed little [43] - Some short - fiber plants plan to start maintenance from late January to early February, and most large - scale short - fiber plants will start operation at the end of February. Entering March, the short - fiber load will increase rapidly. If the US tariffs are reduced, it will be good for the textile and clothing industries in Asian countries [43][46] - Some bottle - chip plants have carried out maintenance, and the market spot supply has decreased. In the second and third quarters, as the downstream enters the procurement and consumption peak season, the social inventory is expected to decline significantly [46] 3.5 Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - In March, with the start of the traditional maintenance season, the PX supply pressure is expected to ease, and the second quarter will see a de - stocking pattern. PTA inventory has increased significantly after the festival, and the basis is weak. March - May will see concentrated PTA plant maintenance, and the de - stocking volume in March may be less than that of last year [59] - The ethylene glycol supply - demand structure will improve month - on - month, but the production capacity will expand significantly in 2026, and the inventory has been continuously accumulating. The ethylene glycol load is expected to be reduced in March [60] - Strategy recommendations: For single - side trading, go long on PX and TA on dips; ethylene glycol will fluctuate. For arbitrage, go long on PX and TA and short ethylene glycol, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity for ethylene glycol and shrink the TA processing margin on rallies. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [7][61]