造纸板块3月月报-20260227

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In February 2026, the pulp market was in a game between "cost support, high inventory, and weak demand". The supply was generally loose, with high - level imports gradually decreasing, high domestic production, and rising port inventories. The demand was structurally differentiated, with packaging paper having rigid demand for broad - leaf pulp, the recovery of the tissue paper industry, and weak cultural paper demand dragging down the consumption of softwood pulp. The total consumption of wood pulp decreased month - on - month [4][50]. - In March, the pulp market is expected to oscillate moderately and move upward slightly, with the valuation center likely to rise slightly. However, the high inventory of softwood pulp and the delayed recovery of cultural paper demand will limit the increase. The double - offset paper market is expected to remain "weakly stable with marginal improvement", and it is difficult for the valuation to fluctuate significantly [5][50][52]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface - The pulp market in February was characterized by the game between cost support, high inventory, and weak demand. The Spring Festival holiday exacerbated the supply - demand contradiction, with high inventory and difficult price increases for paper mills [3][4]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Pulp Futures and Spot Price Trends Review - In February 2026, the domestic pulp market showed a differentiated pattern of "weak oscillation before the Spring Festival and improved sentiment after the festival". In the spot market, softwood pulp rose with the futures, broad - leaf pulp increased significantly due to foreign price hikes, and other types of pulp remained stable or had regional differences. In the futures market, the contract oscillated upward after the festival driven by funds [10][13]. 3.2.2 Pulp Supply - Import: The import volume was at a high level but gradually decreased. The supply of softwood pulp remained stable, and the import of broad - leaf pulp was supported by foreign price hikes. In the future, the import scale may decline slowly but remain high in the short term [20]. - Domestic production: The domestic production capacity was accelerating, and the output remained at a high level. The expansion was mainly concentrated in the broad - leaf pulp field, and the substitution effect of non - wood pulp was gradually increasing [21][22]. - Port inventory: The port inventory continued to accumulate, reaching over 240.1 million tons. The de - stocking pressure was mainly on softwood pulp, while broad - leaf pulp was in a tight - balance state [22]. 3.2.3 Pulp Demand - Cultural paper: Affected by the Spring Festival and the off - season, the demand was weak, and the profit was under pressure. Paper mills purchased pulp cautiously [26]. - Packaging paper: Supported by pre - festival order completion and post - festival restocking, the demand for broad - leaf pulp was rigid [26]. - Tissue paper: After the festival, paper mills resumed production, and the consumption of softwood and broad - leaf pulp increased steadily [29]. 3.2.4 Cultural Paper Market Review - In February, the cultural paper market continued the pattern of "stable price, weak volume, and pressured profit". The prices of double - offset paper and coated paper remained stable, but the industry loss increased, and the inventory continued to accumulate [30]. 3.2.5 Cultural Paper Supply - Demand and Inventory - Production: Affected by the Spring Festival, the production capacity utilization rate of double - offset paper and coated paper was at a low level [38]. - Inventory: The inventory of double - offset paper reached a new high, and the inventory days were far beyond the reasonable range. The inventory removal was difficult [39][40]. - Profit: Although paper mills intended to raise prices, it was difficult to implement due to sufficient downstream inventory, loose supply - demand, and "low - price order - grabbing" by small and medium - sized paper mills [41]. 3.2.6 Cultural Paper Demand Analysis - Import and export: The export volume of double - offset paper was stable but the price was weak, and the cumulative decline narrowed. The export of coated paper remained at a low level [46]. - Downstream demand: Affected by the Spring Festival, the apparent consumption of double - offset paper and coated paper decreased. The demand from the publishing and social printing sectors was weak, and the real demand recovery was slower than expected [46][47]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations 3.3.1 Pulp Fundamental Analysis - In March, the pulp market is expected to oscillate moderately and move upward slightly. The support factors include continuous foreign price hikes, the recovery of downstream demand, and the possible de - stocking of port inventory. The restrictive factors are the high inventory of softwood pulp and the delayed recovery of cultural paper demand [50]. 3.3.2 Pulp Futures Strategy Analysis - Unilateral: Adopt a low - level long - buying strategy. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell SP2605 - P - 5200 [51]. 3.3.3 Double - Offset Paper Fundamental Analysis - In March, the double - offset paper market is expected to remain "weakly stable with marginal improvement". The positive factors are the marginal recovery of downstream demand and the support of pulp prices. The negative factors are the high inventory and the "low - price order - grabbing" by small and medium - sized paper mills [52]. 3.3.4 Double - Offset Paper Strategy Analysis - Unilateral: Adopt a high - level short - selling strategy and pay attention to the post - Spring Festival resumption of work. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Pay attention to the opportunity to sell call options [55].