2026年03月宏观经济与资产月报兼谈“两会”前瞻：美国确定性下降，跟随国内预期节奏-20260227

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The certainty of the US economy has declined, and the market should follow the domestic economic expectations. The US economic resilience is facing challenges due to factors such as the uncertainty of monetary policy, changes in tariff policies, and persistent dollar liquidity tightness. In contrast, the domestic economy shows signs of an unexpected recovery, and the upcoming "Two Sessions" is expected to have a positive impact on the domestic asset prices [2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Economic Situation - Short - term Resilience with Increased Uncertainty: Although the seasonally adjusted US consumption growth rate has declined, leading indicators suggest that consumption growth still has support. The relatively healthy labor market also indicates short - term economic resilience. However, factors such as the uncertainty of monetary policy, changes in tariff policies, and persistent dollar liquidity tightness have increased the uncertainty of the US economy [7][10][23]. - Monetary Policy Uncertainty: The Fed's 1 - month interest - rate meeting did not cut interest rates as expected. The new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's previous "hawkish" attitude has cast a shadow on the market. Although the report adheres to the view that the US monetary policy will be loosened, the process may be more tortuous and require greater driving forces. There is a risk that the previous preventive interest - rate cuts in the US may turn into rescue - style cuts, which will reduce the certainty of the economy and asset prices [10][14][15]. - Tariff Policy Changes: The US Supreme Court's ruling that Trump's IEEPA tariff is unconstitutional has increased the uncertainty of US tariff policies. Trump's new tariff measures are only short - term transitions, and the mid - term may shift to a tariff framework based on 338, 301, or 232. This change has increased the medium - and long - term risks of the US economy and may also affect Sino - US relations [17][18]. - Dollar Liquidity Tightness: The Fed's attempt to ease the dollar liquidity tightness through balance - sheet expansion has had limited effects. The persistent liquidity tightness has increased the risk of the US economy [23]. 3.2 Domestic Economic Situation - Signs of Unexpected Recovery: In February, which is a window period for Chinese economic data, the 2026 Spring Festival consumption was unexpectedly hot. High - frequency data shows that the subway passenger volume and domestic flight volume were significantly better than in previous years. However, the per - capita daily travel expenditure has not returned to the pre - 2020 level, indicating that economic recovery and consumption expansion require policy support [27][29]. 3.3 2026 National "Two Sessions" Preview - Key Focus Areas: The "Two Sessions" is expected to focus on four key areas: the formulation and implementation of the "15th Five - Year Plan", the setting of economic goals and policy guarantees, policies related to the cultivation and development of new - quality productivity, and industrial policies and "anti - involution" [35]. - Impact on the Market: As long as the current policy direction and economic trend continue, the "Two Sessions" will support domestic asset prices. The market has low expectations for the "Two Sessions", and as long as there are no major changes, the market will still have a structural upward trend [40]. 3.4 Outlook for Chinese Asset Trends - Stock Market: Before the "Two Sessions" in early March, the market will enter a stable period, and the "Two Sessions" will maintain policy stability. As long as there are no major changes, the market will have a structural upward trend [41]. - Treasury Bonds: The "re - allocation" of maturing deposits is beneficial to the short - term bond market. In the medium term, either domestic prices will rise or the economy will stabilize, so treasury bonds may fluctuate in the long run [41]. - Commodities: In the short term, it is the off - season for demand, and seasonality is the dominant factor. Trading opportunities need to be found based on the certainty of domestic economic expectations, but this passive choice needs to be treated with caution. In the medium term, the macro and fundamental changes have been reflected in commodity prices to a certain extent, and the strong may remain strong. In the long term, the differentiation of commodity prices will improve, and the prices of low - valued commodities may return [41]. - Renminbi Exchange Rate: The Renminbi will continue to appreciate, but the appreciation trend will be more volatile due to the slowdown of the decline in the US dollar index and the expected impact on imports and exports. In the short term, it has support around 6.8 [41].