金银3月报-20260227

Report Title - The report is titled "Gold and Silver March Monthly Report 2026", released on February 27, 2026 [3][9] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The report indicates that with the strengthening of the macro - narrative, gold and silver are expected to operate in a relatively strong manner [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - The report presents the disk trends of London gold, London silver, Shanghai gold, and Shanghai silver, but no specific review and outlook content is provided [12][13] 2. Macroeconomic Factors - GDP: The report shows the quarterly performance of US GDP and the contribution of GDP sub - items. There are fluctuations in the actual GDP annualized quarterly growth rate and the GDP expenditure method annualized figures [24][25] - Employment: The data of US new non - farm and ADP employment numbers (3 - month average) and the structure of new non - farm employment are presented. For example, in April 2026, the total new non - farm employment was 130,000 [30][31] - Job Vacancies and Unemployment: The relationship between US job vacancies and the unemployment rate is shown. There are data on the JOLTS job vacancy rate and the unemployment rate [33][34] - PCE and Personal Consumption Expenditure: The report shows the US PCE price index year - on - year and personal consumption expenditure data, including the monthly year - on - year and month - on - month changes [38] - Fed Rate Expectations: The CME FedWatch tool shows the conditional meeting probabilities of the Fed's interest rate decisions at different meeting dates. For example, on March 18, 2026, the probability of the interest rate being in the 325 - 350 range was 4%, and in the 350 - 375 range was 96% [40] 3. Fundamental Factors - Gold Supply and Demand: - Supply: The supply of gold from various sources such as mines, recycling, etc. is presented. For example, the global mine production in 2025 was 3,672 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [44] - Demand: Gold demand includes jewelry, investment, industrial use, and central bank purchases. In 2025, the total gold demand was 4,999.4 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. Central bank purchases in 2025 were 663.3 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.0% [44] - Price: The LEMA gold price in 2025 was $3,432 per ounce, a year - on - year increase of 43.8% [44] - Silver Supply and Demand: - Inventory: The report shows the inventory data of silver in the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, London LBMA market, and US Comex market [54][57] - Trade: The export and import data of silver in China are presented. For example, the export volume of unforged silver with a purity of ≥99.99% in 2025 had certain fluctuations [59][62] - ETF and Lease Rate: The total global silver ETF holdings and the lease rate of silver are shown [60][61]