CGS-NDI专题报告：非理性繁荣下的理性AI泡沫将如何演绎？

Group 1: AI Bubble Characteristics - The current AI bubble is characterized as a "rational bubble," differing from historical irrational bubbles like the Dutch tulip mania, due to AI's transformative potential for society[4] - The macroeconomic environment, valuation structures, and investment intensity indicate that the risks associated with the current AI bubble are manageable compared to the 2000 internet bubble[4] - Global major economies are in a rate-cutting window, with actual interest rates significantly declining, which increases market tolerance for long-term capital expenditures and uncertainties in future returns[4] Group 2: Risks and Potential Outcomes - Structural and cyclical issues in the global economy present systemic risks that exceed those during the 2000 internet bubble, driven by demographic aging, debt expansion, and de-globalization[4] - The AI bubble may lead to unexpected liquidity tightening, especially if geopolitical tensions raise commodity prices, potentially resulting in a "secondary inflation" scenario[5] - The difficulty in forming a closed-loop business model within the AI industry could hinder the sustainability of the bubble, as heavy asset expansion increases operational cash flow pressures[5] Group 3: Economic Implications - AI's impact on employment and consumption may lead to economic demand shocks, with the potential for a "smart crisis" that could exacerbate economic downturns[5] - If the bubble bursts, China's adjustment may be more manageable due to its national system and domestic market advantages[5] - The ongoing AI investment is still in the early stages of technology diffusion, with significant room for growth compared to the peak of the internet cycle[7]