美国1月CPI数据点评：商品通胀减缓，年内仍存降息空间

Data Insights - The January CPI in the U.S. increased by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3% and previous 0.3%[3] - Year-on-year CPI growth was 2.4%, slightly below the expected 2.5% and previous 2.7%[3] - Core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, matching expectations, while year-on-year growth was 2.5%, consistent with expectations but down from 2.6%[3] Inflation Contributors - The largest contributors to the January CPI increase were housing and food, both at 0.2% month-on-month, while energy prices decreased by 1.5%[4] - Year-on-year food inflation was at 2.9%, with significant increases in baked goods (3.1%), beef (15%), seafood (5.1%), and coffee (18.3%)[4] - Energy prices showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, with energy commodities down 7.3% and energy services up 7.2%[5] Core Goods and Services - Core goods saw a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, with furniture and home decor rising by 3.8% and clothing by 1.7%[6] - Core services year-on-year growth was 2.9%, primarily driven by housing, which is experiencing a downward trend in growth rates[7] - The rental growth rate was 2.8%, while the equivalent rent for owner-occupied housing was 3.3%[7] Economic Outlook - There is a potential window for 2 to 3 interest rate cuts this year, with no immediate inflationary pressures expected before Q4[10] - The impact of tariffs on inflation appears to be contained, with no significant spillover effects observed in non-tariff categories[8] - The overall economic environment suggests a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve, with a focus on balancing inflation control and economic growth[14]