钢材&铁矿石日报：现实格局偏弱，钢矿延续震荡-20260227

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - Rebar: The main contract futures price oscillated with a daily increase of 0.03%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar are weakly stable, with continuous inventory growth and prices remaining under pressure. However, policy expectations are strengthening, and the operating logic of the steel market switches between reality and expectations. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to domestic policies [5]. - Hot-rolled Coil: The main contract futures price trended weakly with a daily decline of 0.25%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the demand for hot-rolled coils has begun to recover, but its resilience needs to be monitored, and supply pressure persists. The fundamentals are weakly stable, and prices will still be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is policy expectations. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory bottom-finding trend under the game between expectations and reality, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - Iron Ore: The main contract futures price oscillated with a daily increase of 0.27%, trading volume decreased, and open interest increased. Currently, the improvement of iron ore demand is limited, while supply has returned to a high level. The fundamentals of iron ore are relatively weak, and concerns about medium-term oversupply remain. Ore prices will still be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the strengthening of policy expectations. It is expected to continue the low-level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill resumptions [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - Macro Policy: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee emphasized the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, aiming to expand domestic demand, optimize supply, and promote various aspects of economic development [7]. - Air-conditioning Market: In early 2026, the air-conditioning market showed a complex picture. In January, stimulated by the continuation of national subsidy policies, the retail market had a "good start" with a 12.7% year-on-year increase in retail volume and a 6.3% increase in retail sales. However, the short-term recovery was not transmitted to the production side, and the domestic sales production schedule for March only increased by 3.6% year-on-year [8]. - Iron Ore Project: Australian mining company Alien Metals announced significant progress in the exploration of its Pilbara iron ore projects in Western Australia. Multiple projects have great potential for iron ore formation and good exploration prospects [9]. Spot Market - Steel Products: The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average showed some fluctuations. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2,910, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,160. The volume spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar was 50, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,020 [10]. - Iron Ore: The price of PB fines at Shandong ports was 747, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 752. The sea freight from Australia was 9.85, and from Brazil was 23.74. The SGX swap (current month) was 99.05, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 99.30 [10]. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the main contract was 3,067, with a daily increase of 0.03%. The trading volume was 595,003, a decrease of 97,921, and the open interest was 1,948,194, a decrease of 4,226 [12]. - Hot-rolled Coil: The closing price of the main contract was 3,215, with a daily decline of 0.25%. The trading volume was 277,047, a decrease of 43,993, and the open interest was 1,492,009, a decrease of 791 [12]. - Iron Ore: The closing price of the main contract was 750.5, with a daily increase of 0.27%. The trading volume was 175,649, a decrease of 14,745, and the open interest was 546,682, an increase of 6,109 [12]. Relevant Charts - Steel Inventory: Included charts of weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) for rebar and hot-rolled coils, showing inventory trends over time [14][15][20]. - Iron Ore Inventory: Included charts of 45-port iron ore inventory, 247 steel mill iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory, reflecting inventory levels and changes [22][23][26]. - Steel Mill Production: Included charts of the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate and profitability of 94 independent electric furnace steel mills, showing the production and profit status of steel mills [30][32][33]. 后市研判 - Rebar: Supply and demand have changed. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 5.28 tons, and inventory is at a high level. Demand is weak and the recovery has a time lag. Policy expectations are strengthening. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to domestic policies [38]. - Hot-rolled Coil: The supply-demand pattern has changed little. The weekly output decreased slightly by 0.20 tons, and inventory is accumulating at a high level. Demand has recovered, but its resilience needs to be monitored. Policy expectations are positive. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory bottom-finding trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [38]. - Iron Ore: Supply and demand have changed. Ore demand has improved but with limited growth space, and supply will return to a high level. Policy expectations are strengthening. It is expected to continue the low-level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill resumptions [39].