矿端再现扰动，锡价大幅拉涨

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short - term, under the background of supply tightening, tin prices are expected to fluctuate, with the price movement range between 360,000 - 500,000 yuan per ton. Currently, it is not recommended to chase high prices. If the tin price adjusts later, it can be continuously monitored. In the medium - term, if the resumption and new production in the main tin - producing areas proceed smoothly, tin supply and demand may ease slightly but still remain in a tight - balance state, with relatively high callback risks, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. In the long - term, with a significant increase in ore supply and strong demand, the center of tin prices is expected to show an upward trend [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On February 27, 2026, tin prices continued to rise sharply. As of the close, the main contract of Shanghai tin rose 8.88% to 453,240 yuan per ton. The main reason for the increase in tin prices is the intensification of armed conflicts in Myanmar, which has caused market concerns about tin ore supply. However, the conflict mainly occurred in areas other than the main tin - producing area of Wa State, so it is considered that it will not have an obvious impact on tin ore production for the time being [3] Fundamental Situation - Currently, the domestic ore supply is tightening, which restricts refined tin production. As of February 13, the processing fee for 60% grade tin ore is 10,000 yuan per ton, and that for 40% grade tin ore is 14,000 yuan per ton, remaining at a relatively low level. In January, the domestic refined tin output was 14,382 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.74%; the domestic tin smelter operating rate was 56.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9 percentage points. Recently, the visible tin inventory has accumulated, mainly because some smelters transported goods to the warehouse and registered warehouse receipts. As of February 26, the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory was 11,556 tons, and the LME tin inventory was 7,575 tons [4] Summary and Strategy - In terms of supply, the continuous tightening of the ore end has led to a shortage of raw materials for smelters and low tin ore processing fees, making it difficult to increase refined tin output. In terms of demand, the semiconductor industry maintains high growth, and consumption in areas such as new energy vehicles continues to rise. Considering the need to rebuild the industrial chain inventory, tin demand is expected to continue to grow [5]