沪铜日报：震荡偏强-20260227

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" [1] 2. Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai copper market opened lower and closed higher today with a late - session rally. In the short - term, it is expected to be bullish. Future attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts and downstream's acceptance of high prices. Although the "Golden March and Silver April" is approaching, the current high inventory is suppressing the market price [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Market Trend: The Shanghai copper market opened lower and closed higher, with a late - session rally. The futures market showed an upward trend throughout the day, while the spot market had a cold trading sentiment [1][4] - Supply: During the holiday, the upstream smelting load was relatively normal, and future copper supply will remain high and stable. In January, the output was 1.57 million tons more than expected. It is estimated that the output of electrolytic copper in China in February will decrease by 3.58 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3.04%, but an increase of 8.06% year - on - year [1] - Demand: As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.00%. Downstream factories have not fully resumed production, and the overall trading activity in the market is low. Due to the suspension of downstream demand during the holiday and normal upstream production, the social inventory of copper has increased significantly [1] - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 290,600 tons, an increase of 1,375 tons from the previous period. As of February 26, the Shanghai bonded area copper inventory is 88,600 tons, an increase of 0.11 million tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 253,600 tons, an increase of 3,950 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 601,000 short tons, a decrease of 528 short tons from the previous period [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened high and moved higher, showing a strong intraday performance [4] - Spot: The spot premium in East China is - 250 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 130 yuan/ton. On February 26, 2026, the LME official price was 13,286 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 71 US dollars/ton [4] 3.3 Supply - Side Information - As of the latest data on February 24, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 50.97 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 5.02 US cents/pound [9]