焦煤日报：上下游启动，盘面承压-20260227

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The coking coal market is under pressure. Although both the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are in a recovery period, the downstream recovery ability is currently weaker than that of the upstream. The coking coal market is affected by factors such as steel mill emissions reduction during the Two - Sessions, the recovery of imported coal supply, and the resumption of domestic mines. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Coking coal opened lower and moved lower, with a small intraday rebound. Some steel enterprises in North China have received a notice of temporary independent emissions reduction during the 2026 National Two - Sessions from March 4th to March 11th, with a requirement to reduce emissions by at least 30% of the blast furnace load. [1] - The three major Mongolian coal ports are operating normally, and the supply of imported coal is gradually recovering. Domestic mines are gradually resuming work, with the operating load significantly increased by 20% this period. After the holiday, with the resumption of mines, the coking coal mine inventory increased by 6.04 tons. [1] - Independent coking enterprises and steel mills have seen inventory depletion for two consecutive weeks after the Spring Festival. After the festival, steel mills have slightly recovered, with an increase of 2.79 tons in molten iron production. The emissions reduction of steel mills during the Two - Sessions may interfere with short - term operations. [1] - Many places such as Shanghai have successively introduced new policies to stimulate the real estate market, and the performance of the terminal market still needs to be observed. [1] 3.2 Spot Data - The self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking raw coal is 1000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot price in Jiexiu is reported at 1270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. [2] - The closing price of the main contract futures is 1093.5 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi is 176.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. [2] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply data: From February 21st to February 27th, the operating rate of 523 sample domestic coking coal mines was 68.24%, a month - on - month increase of 19.35 percentage points; the daily average output of refined coking coal was 64.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.02 tons. [4] - Demand data: From February 21st to February 27th, the daily average output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 64.29 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 tons; the daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 tons. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 233.28 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79 tons. [5]