沥青日报：低开后震荡运行-20260227

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt market has weak supply and demand. Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation results and its significant impact on oil prices, it is expected that asphalt prices will fluctuate accordingly, and reverse arbitrage is recommended [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情分析 - The asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 21.4% week - on - week, 4.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - In February 2026, the domestic asphalt is expected to have a production of 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) month - on - month and 135,000 tons (6.5%) year - on - year [1] - After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries are slowly resuming work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries have increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 4 percentage points to 4% week - on - week [1][4] - During the Spring Festival, the supply in Shandong was at a low level, and the logistics was stagnant, resulting in a large decrease in shipments. The national shipments decreased by 0.99% to 130,400 tons, at a relatively low level [1] - During the Spring Festival, the asphalt factory inventory increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years [1][4] - The flow of Venezuelan heavy - crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect domestic asphalt production and costs. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, the import of Venezuelan crude oil in China is still significantly lower than before the US intervention [1] - The asphalt trading was light during the Spring Festival. The asphalt price in Shandong decreased slightly today, and the basis is at a relatively low - neutral level. It is expected that domestic refineries will still have raw material inventory available before March [1] 2.期现行情 - The asphalt futures contract 2604 fell 0.03% to 3,346 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,303 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,354 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 12,386 to 103,840 lots [2] 3.基差方面 - The mainstream market price in Shandong decreased to 3,290 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract rose to - 56 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - neutral level [3] 4.基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, some major refineries in the south produce intermittently, and the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 21.4% week - on - week, 4.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points compared with January - October 2025, but it is still negative [4] - From January to December 2025, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline from - 4.7% from January to November 2025, still in a cumulative year - on - year negative growth situation [4] - From January to December 2025, the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, continuing to decline from - 1.1% from January to November 2025 [4] - As of the week of February 27, after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries are slowly resuming work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries have increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 4 percentage points to 4% week - on - week [4] - As of the week of February 27, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 2.4 percentage points to 16.4% compared with the week of February 13. During the Spring Festival, the asphalt factory inventory increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years [4]