补库需求支撑，玉米偏强震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The global corn supply-demand situation is generally loose in 2025/26, but the potential reduction in the US corn planting area in 26/27 may bring speculative themes. In China, corn production increased significantly in 2025/26, and the fast grain - selling progress helps reduce the spring listing pressure. The feed demand has short - term resilience but a pessimistic future trend, and the deep - processing industry has mixed performance. The downstream replenishment provides short - term support to the corn market, and it is expected to operate in a strong and volatile manner, but attention should be paid to factors such as the grain - selling rhythm after the temperature rise in the north, the scale of substitute grain imports, and policy auctions [1][34][35] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Since February, the domestic corn market has generally risen. Futures declined significantly on the first trading day of the month and then fluctuated upwards. The upward trend accelerated on the 11th and broke through the technical resistance level. After the Spring Festival, the futures remained strong, but there were many upper shadows on the daily line, indicating increased divergence in the market. Spot prices were weak and volatile before the Spring Festival due to light trading, and rose after the festival following the strong futures. The strength of the corn market is mainly due to the low inventory levels of the middle and lower reaches, limited impact of import substitution, and the fast grain - selling progress at the grass - roots level [3] 3.2 International Corn Market Analysis 3.2.1 US Corn Balance Sheet is Loose, but the New - Season Area May Decline - In 2025/26, the US corn harvest area is 36.93 million hectares, with a yield of 11.68 tons per hectare and a total output of 432 million tons. The feed consumption is 157 million tons, food and processing demand is 177 million tons, exports are 81.28 million tons, and the year - end inventory is 54.024 million tons, with an inventory - to - sales ratio of 12.91%. The export sales are better than the same period last year. Due to the high CBOT soybean/corn price ratio, the new - season corn planting area is expected to decrease [6] 3.2.2 South American Production Continues to be Bumper, but Demand Growth Helps Reduce Inventory - In 2025/26, Brazil's corn output is expected to be 131 million tons, slightly lower than last year, with exports of 43 million tons, a decrease in carry - over inventory, and a lower inventory - to - consumption ratio. Argentina's output is expected to be 53 million tons, exports are 37 million tons, and the carry - over inventory is 5.88 million tons, a decrease from last year. Overall, the production in South America is generally stable, but the demand is good, leading to a decline in carry - over inventory and a lower inventory - to - consumption ratio [10] 3.2.3 Ukraine's Production Increases in a Recovery - Type Manner, and the Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio Rises - In 2025/26, Ukraine's corn output is expected to be 29 million tons, an increase of 2.2 million tons or 8% compared to last year. The final carry - over inventory is 1.648 million tons, a slight increase from last year, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 5.84%, a slight increase from previous years [12] 3.3 Domestic Corn Market Analysis 3.3.1 The Grain - Selling Progress Slows Down Due to the Long Holiday - In 2025/26, China's corn output is expected to reach 301 million tons, an increase of more than 6 million tons mainly due to the increase in yield. In February, the grain - selling progress slowed down due to the Spring Festival. As of February 25, the grain - selling progress in Northeast China was 67%, 3 percentage points lower than the same period last year; in North China, it was 66%, 6 percentage points lower; and the national progress was 66%, 4 percentage points lower. Currently, the remaining grain is relatively sufficient [15] 3.3.2 Feed Consumption is Expected to be Poor, and Deep - Processing Consumption is Generally Stable Year - on - Year - In 2025, the total output of the national industrial feed was 342.253 million tons, an increase of 8.6% compared to last year. For 2026, due to the re - entry of the pig - breeding industry into the loss range and the policy of promoting the orderly reduction of production capacity, as well as the poor performance of the egg - laying chicken industry, the feed consumption is expected to decline. In deep - processing, the corn consumption of the starch industry has decreased year - on - year due to poor processing profits, while the alcohol industry's consumption has increased significantly as it consumes low - quality corn. The total corn consumption of deep - processing enterprises is similar to that of last year [20][22] 3.3.3 The Substitution of Imported Grains and Wheat for Domestic Corn is Expected to Decrease - Since February, the price difference between domestic wheat and corn has been in a balanced state, and corn has a certain cost - performance advantage in the feed field. The proportion of corn in compound feed has been rising. With the stable growth of China's corn output, the demand for imported substitute grains has decreased, and the impact of imported substitutes is more phased and regional. In the short term, Australian barley arrived at ports in February, and the supply of substitute grains such as sorghum from the US, Australia, and Brazil will increase later [24] 3.3.4 Port Inventories are Still Low, and Enterprise Inventories have Declined - The inventory in the northern ports is rising but still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The inventory in the southern ports is also at a low level, but it will be supplemented with the arrival of imported grains. The raw material inventories of deep - processing enterprises have returned to low levels and have a certain demand for replenishment. The raw material inventory days of feed enterprises are at a neutral level, and due to the poor profit of the breeding sector, the motivation for further large - scale replenishment is not strong [32]