钢材铁矿月度报告-20260227

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, the steel market is in a "supply and demand double weak" pattern with policy expectations providing support, and is expected to fluctuate during the "Two Sessions". After the meetings, attention should be paid to inventory reduction due to actual supply and demand [6]. - In March, the iron ore market has strong supply and weak demand, with high port inventories pressuring the upper limit of the price, but policy sentiment and post - holiday demand recovery expectations support the lower limit, and the price will mainly fluctuate in a range [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1后市预判 (Outlook) - Steel Market: In March, the steel market is in a "supply and demand double weak" situation. Affected by the Spring Festival, EAF capacity utilization dropped significantly, while blast furnace operating rates increased slightly. Steel production decreased in February, and demand dropped during the Spring Festival, leading to inventory accumulation. After the holiday, downstream resumption of work is expected to drive inventory reduction, but the inflection point is postponed [6]. - Iron Ore Market: In March, iron ore supply is strong and demand is weak, with high port inventories. The market is affected by the "Two Sessions" and post - holiday demand recovery expectations, and the price will mainly fluctuate. In February, Australian shipments were affected by tropical cyclones and then recovered. Due to the Spring Festival, shipping and port operations were affected, and port inventories remained high. After the holiday, port throughput is expected to return to normal, and port inventories face pressure to reduce [9]. 3.2产业动态 (Industry Dynamics) - Some steel enterprises in North China have received temporary independent emission reduction notices from March 4th to 11th, with a minimum 30% reduction in blast furnace load [11]. - Most steel market merchants resumed work on the eighth day of the first lunar month, and some downstream terminals will resume work around the Lantern Festival [11]. - In February 2026, South Korea's KTC made a final ruling on the anti - dumping case of hot - rolled coils from China and Japan. China and South Korea reached a consensus through price commitments, and South Korea will implement quota management on Chinese hot - rolled coils without additional anti - dumping duties [11]. - From February 16th to 22nd, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil reached 14.176 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.287 million tons, reaching the highest level since the beginning of the year [11]. - Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Seven" real - estate policy, adjusting the purchase restriction policy, reducing the social security requirement for non - Shanghai residents to buy housing inside the outer ring from 3 years to 1 year, and increasing the maximum provident fund loan amount for families to 3.24 million yuan. Shanghai - registered families buying their only new housing can be temporarily exempt from property tax [11]. - As of the end of January, the national passenger vehicle industry inventory was 3.57 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 80,000 units and a year - on - year increase of 580,000 units, showing a high - level inventory operation [11]. - The US has started to levy a 10% global tariff and is preparing to raise it to 15%. The US government is considering imposing new tariffs on about six industries on the grounds of "national security" [11]. 3.3数据分析 (Data Analysis) - Steel Production: Since February, rebar production has declined slightly, while hot - rolled coil production has increased steadily. As of February 27th, the weekly actual production of rebar was 1.651 million tons, a decrease of 414,000 tons compared to the same period last year, and the weekly actual production of hot - rolled coils was 3.0961 million tons, a decrease of 135,200 tons compared to the same period last year. The EAF capacity utilization decreased significantly, while the blast furnace operating rate increased slightly [13]. - Steel Inventory: As of the week of February 27th, the in - plant inventory of rebar was 232,840 tons, a decrease of 1,430 tons compared to the same period last year, and the social inventory in 35 cities was 567,760 tons, a decrease of 614,100 tons compared to the same period last year. The in - plant inventory of hot - rolled coils was 94,780 tons, an increase of 33,400 tons compared to the same period last year, and the social inventory in 33 cities was 357,370 tons, an increase of 134,100 tons compared to the same period last year. After the Spring Festival, downstream resumption of work is expected to drive inventory reduction, but the inflection point is postponed [14]. - Steel Demand: As of February 25th, the resumption rate of 10,692 construction sites nationwide was 8.9%, a lunar - year - on - lunar - year increase of 1.5%; the labor attendance rate was 15.5%, a lunar - year - on - lunar - year increase of 3.7%; the fund availability rate was 29%, a lunar - year - on - lunar - year increase of 9.4%. As of the week of February 27th, the weekly consumption of rebar was 33,550 tons, a decrease of 157,160 tons compared to the same period last year, and the cement delivery volume was 22,100 tons, a decrease of 134,500 tons compared to the same period last year. The demand inflection point of building materials is postponed due to the late resumption of work [16]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Consumption: As of February 27th, the weekly consumption of hot - rolled coils was 268,370 tons, a decrease of 53,960 tons compared to the same period last year. As of the eighth day of the first lunar month, 85% of traders had resumed work, and by the tenth day, most traders were expected to resume work. Terminal industries such as steel structures and machinery had a resumption level of 80% as of the eighth day, and are expected to reach 90% by the tenth day, with full resumption after the Lantern Festival [18]. - Iron Ore Supply: As of the week of February 20th, the global iron ore shipment volume was 33.209 million tons, an increase of 2.54 million tons compared to the same period last year; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 21.524 million tons, an increase of 497,000 tons compared to the same period last year. In early February, Australian shipments were affected by tropical cyclones and then recovered. Due to the Spring Festival, the arrival volume decreased [22]. - Iron Ore Inventory: As of the week of February 27th, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 170.9196 million tons, an increase of 18.7056 million tons compared to the same period last year; the daily average throughput was 298,480 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 90.851 million tons, a decrease of 820,900 tons compared to the same period last year. After the holiday, port throughput is expected to return to normal, and port inventories face pressure to reduce [27]. - Iron Ore Trading: As of the week of February 13th, the daily average spot trading volume of iron ore at major Chinese ports by traders was 34,800 tons. The daily average trading volume of forward iron ore spot decreased significantly. After the Spring Festival, market trading activity is expected to gradually recover [28]. - Iron Ore Consumption: As of February 27th, the daily average molten iron output of 247 sample steel enterprises was 233,280 tons, an increase of 53,400 tons compared to the same period last year; the daily average consumption of imported iron ore was 288,710 tons, an increase of 45,400 tons compared to the same period last year. Since February, the daily average molten iron output has been increasing, and the daily average consumption of imported iron ore has increased synchronously [30]. - Price Difference between Hot - Rolled Coils and Rebar: As of February 26th, the price difference between the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils was 155 yuan/ton, and the price difference has fluctuated within a range since February [32].