PVC月报：节后修复与去库预期博弈，基差收敛但库存压力仍在-20260227

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February 2026, the PVC market showed characteristics of "expectations leading, reality lagging" around the Spring Festival. The spot price increased slightly, the basis was still in deep contango but converged after the festival. The market is expected to see inventory destocking in March driven by demand recovery, but the high inventory and supply elasticity will limit the upward trend. The market will likely fluctuate in the chain of "destocking verification - basis repair - profit - driven supply increase" [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - Futures Price: The PVC futures contract (V2605) declined by about 6.7% in February, hitting a new low for the year at the end of the month. The price movement can be divided into three stages: an early - month high, a mid - month oscillation, and a late - month sharp decline [3]. - Spot Price and Basis: The average monthly spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 in February was about 4,764 yuan/ton, up about 2.9% from January. The basis was negative, with an average of about - 222 yuan/ton, and it converged after the festival [4]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: In February, the average daily trading volume was about 948,000 lots, and the average daily open interest was about 1.639 million lots, up about 5.9% and 5.6% respectively from January. After the festival, there was a simultaneous increase in positions and volume, indicating multi - empty games [5]. - Warehouse Receipts: In February, the registered warehouse receipts decreased by about 4.7%, showing a marginal relief of delivery pressure and reflecting the spot market's absorption of delivery resources [6]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The supply remained at a high level in February, with an industry comprehensive operating rate above 80%. Although the market expects a spring maintenance season in March, there is no clear plan yet. The supply elasticity is still high, and the "real contraction" needs to be verified in March [8]. - Demand: In February, the demand was mainly affected by the time difference between "improved expectations" and "real recovery". The post - festival resumption of production and restocking expectations were high, but the real estate chain was weak, and the export support weakened [9]. - Inventory: Due to the Spring Festival, the inventory increased seasonally. The social inventory increased from about 1.206 million tons to about 1.353 million tons (+12.2%), and the factory inventory increased from about 290,000 tons to about 504,000 tons (+73.7%). The high inventory will be the core constraint in March [9]. - Cost and Profit: In February, the cost was relatively weak, and the profit improved. The loss of calcium - carbide - based production narrowed, and the ethylene - based production turned profitable. The profit improvement may increase the supply elasticity if the demand recovers in March [14]. - International Market: The overseas prices were strong in February, with the US Gulf FAS, Tianjin FOB, and Northwest Europe FOB rising by about 8.7%, 3.8%, and 8.4% respectively. The strong overseas market may improve export profits but needs further monitoring [14]. 3.3. Summary and Outlook - February Market Summary: In February, the PVC spot price increased, the basis converged after the festival, and there were signs of repair in the futures - spot structure. The market showed a lot of trading volume and open - interest increase, with inventory increasing seasonally. The cost was weak, and the profit improved, which may limit the price rebound if the demand does not meet expectations [15]. - March Outlook: In March, the trading focus is expected to shift from "post - festival expectation repair" to "real destocking verification". The basis may further converge and the market center may move up if the demand and supply conditions are favorable; otherwise, the market may remain weak. The impact of overseas price strength on exports also needs attention [17]. - Strategy Recommendations: For short - term trading, use an interval approach before the inventory shows a clear inflection point. For inter - period trading, consider positive spreads if spring maintenance occurs and destocking accelerates; otherwise, consider negative spreads. For hedging, producers can sell - hedge when the price rebounds and the basis improves, and downstream processors can buy - hedge when the basis is in deep contango [18].