芳烃市场周报：节后需求修复，高效益延续（PX，纯苯，苯乙烯）-20260227

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Since Q4, PX downstream demand has improved with certain support. With positive news such as the China-US tariff meeting and anti-involution, PX has maintained a strong pattern. Since late December, the cost side has continuously risen, and PX has seen a significant increase. Although the efficiency was good before the Spring Festival and the long - term outlook is positive, there is a lack of further support from the supply - demand side. The strong absolute price trend is mainly due to the strong support of crude oil. In the short term, after the Spring Festival, the main contract switches to 2605, with a strong expectation during the maintenance season. However, driven by high efficiency, domestic and foreign supply has returned, and the production enthusiasm remains strong, alleviating the previous expectation of supply shortage. [5] - For pure benzene, overall, affected by the successive implementation of new production capacities, domestic production has significantly increased. Coupled with the oversupply in the overseas market, the overall supply - demand situation still exerts a negative impact on the pure benzene price. In February, downstream enterprises gradually went on holiday, and the market was dull. The high inventory and high import volume at the port are difficult to quickly reduce, and inventory may continue to accumulate from March. In the short term, after the Spring Festival, logistics and transportation return to normal, downstream factories have restocking expectations, and refineries' bullish sentiment remains. With the continuation of styrene profit after the Spring Festival, the new consumption still supports the demand side of pure benzene, and there is still an expectation of the approaching peak season in the short term. [6] - Since November 2025, the supply - demand structure of styrene has improved. With domestic factories successively shutting down for maintenance and reducing loads, styrene output has decreased, port inventory at high levels has decreased, and prices have stopped falling and stabilized. Since late December, the continuous rise in aromatics prices, along with the improvement of the macro - market sentiment in 2026 and the rebound of crude oil prices under geopolitical influence, have further alleviated the market's bearish sentiment. Driven by the upward movement of the external market, the spot and futures prices of styrene have increased significantly. In the short term, before the Spring Festival, styrene remained relatively weak due to the inventory accumulation of upstream pure benzene and the expectation of downstream terminal shutdown during the Spring Festival. In the first week after the Spring Festival, the situation at the styrene port was better than expected, but the recovery of the demand side may need a buffer. On the other hand, during the Spring Festival, the geopolitical influence between the US and Iran intensified, the cost - side oil price increased, and styrene followed the upward movement and then oscillated and gave back. In the short term, it is still mainly affected by the cost side and geopolitics. The supply - demand side of styrene is still stronger than that of the upstream. In the medium and short term, attention should be paid to inventory pressure and the recovery of the demand side. [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PX Price - The settlement price of Sinopec's PX in February was 7,385 yuan/ton, and the listed price was 7,650 yuan/ton, with a slight increase. Aromatic prices traded the cost - side increase brought by the US - Iran geopolitical conflict in the short term after the Spring Festival, and the spot and futures prices fluctuated at high levels. [5] Production and Devices - There were no changes in PX devices during the week, and the maintenance plans for the first and second quarters were gradually announced. The PX load was stable during the week. This week, the PX output was 771,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0%. The average domestic PX capacity utilization rate was 93.25%, with a month - on - month increase of 0%. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Asian PX was 82.51%, with a month - on - month increase of 0%. The production enthusiasm of PX factories remained good, and the domestic and overseas operations were still at a high level. [5] Supply and Demand - This week, the domestic PTA output was 1.4152 million tons, an increase of 5,500 tons compared with last week and an increase of 54,100 tons compared with the same period last year. During the cycle, the previously shut - down new - material devices restarted, and another device restarted after a short - term shutdown this week. The overall domestic output increased slightly during this cycle. [5] Spread - The report presents the trends of PX - N spread, PX - MX spread, crude oil - naphtha spread, and BZ - N spread over the years. [18] Pure Benzene Price - The futures price of pure benzene has fluctuated significantly recently. After reaching a relatively high level at the end of January driven by the cost side, it oscillated following the oil price. [6] Supply and Demand - In January, the national pure benzene output was 1.9464 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.42%. Overall, the demand side of pure benzene improved, and the supply - demand balance sheet showed a slight inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, with a slight actual inventory accumulation at the port. As of this week, the total commercial inventory of the Chinese pure benzene port samples was 320,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons compared with the previous inventory of 313,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.24%. Compared with the inventory of 155,000 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 165,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 106.45%. [6] Devices - The report shows the trends of the ethylene international market, Chinese pure benzene load, pure benzene cost - profit situation, and Chinese ethylene production - demand situation. [31] Styrene Price - Recently, the main contract of styrene has continued to oscillate. In early February, it回调 following the cost side and the macro - commodity market, and then increased during the Spring Festival under the influence of cost - side geopolitics. The current mainstream price in East China is 7,740 yuan/ton, an increase from before. [7] Production and Devices - The overall output of Chinese styrene factories was 372,400 tons, an increase of 5,300 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.44%; the factory capacity utilization rate was 74.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%. There were no new plans for starting or shutting down styrene devices this week. Most of the current shutdowns for maintenance are routine maintenance. [7] Inventory and Profit - As of February 24, 2026, the total inventory of the Jiangsu styrene port samples was 158,100 tons, an increase of 61,900 tons compared with the previous period, an increase of 64.35%. The commercial inventory was 87,200 tons, an increase of 33,200 tons compared with the previous period, an increase of 61.48%. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, inventory accumulated during the festival. After the Spring Festival, the delivery of styrene to downstream enterprises is relatively large, and the arrival and warehousing may decrease. With the recovery and improvement of downstream output, the expectation of picking up goods has increased, and there is an expectation of a slight inventory reduction at the Jiangsu styrene port at the end of the month. The average profit of non - integrated styrene devices in China in this cycle was 419 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 14.34%. On February 26, the daily profit of non - integrated styrene devices in China was 516 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day, a month - on - month increase of 9.27%; theoretically, the cash - flow cost of domestic non - integrated styrene devices was 6,924 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow profit was 816 yuan/ton. [7] Downstream - The consumption of the main downstream products of styrene (EPS, PS, ABS) in China was 252,100 tons, a decrease of 8,300 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.19% (statistics up to the last week before the Spring Festival). After the Spring Festival, except for the decrease in the output of PS, the output of other products such as EPS, PS, and UPR increased, and the overall demand for styrene increased. [7]