南美天气或有溢价空间，美豆偏强震荡延续

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, there is still room for premium speculation on the weather in South American soybean production areas. The rainfall in central and northern Brazil may affect the harvesting progress, while the drought in southern Brazil and most parts of Argentina will also attract market attention. Although Brazil has a clear expectation of a bumper soybean harvest, the quality is worrying. There is a possibility of a downward adjustment in the soybean production of Brazil and Argentina in the next month. Due to the decline in Brazilian farmers' planting income, the downward space for the premium of Brazilian soybeans is limited [3][32][102]. - In March, the US soybean market enters the resonance period of the old and new crop years. The export and crushing demand of the old crop year are still the focus of the market. At present, US soybean exports have completed 80% of the USDA's estimate, so the possibility of the USDA further reducing US soybean exports has decreased. Due to the significant increase in purchases from non - Chinese regions, there is a possibility of an upward adjustment in US soybean exports in the future. In addition, the further development of China - US economic and trade relations will also boost US soybeans. Relatively speaking, the crushing demand remains good. The tight inventory situation of US soybeans may continue. The market still has differences on the increase in the planting area of US soybeans in the new year. In the future, due to the recovery of export demand, the growth of US soybean inventory is limited, which will boost US soybeans. In the short term, CBOT soybeans are oscillating around 1150 cents per bushel, and there is a possibility of rising to 1200 cents per bushel [4][56][105]. - In March, the supply gap of domestic soybean meal narrows, but there may be a regional and structural mismatch. Although the domestic pig - raising profit continues to be in a loss, the demand for soybean meal does not change much, which makes the spot inventory of soybean meal decline steadily. Due to the expected arrival of imported soybeans in China and the higher inventory of domestic soybean meal than in the same period of 2025, the spot basis of soybean meal may be weaker than that in the same period of last year. Due to the uncertainty of customs policies and domestic imported soybean auction policies, the domestic soybean meal spot in March remains firm, and the basis of soybean meal remains at a high level. The domestic soybean meal market is still affected by the impact of import costs. In March, CBOT soybeans oscillate strongly, there is still a possibility of weather premium in South America, and the tight supply of US soybeans still supports US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal market may maintain a strong oscillation. The main contract should focus on whether it can effectively break through 2850 yuan per ton. If not, it will still oscillate between 2750 yuan per ton and 2850 yuan per ton. In March, the domestic rapeseed meal market faces policy changes. Once the China - US economic and trade relations ease, the supply of rapeseed meal may increase, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen. Attention should be paid to policy changes [5][79][106]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In February, CBOT soybeans rose significantly. At the beginning of the month, US President Donald Trump posted on social media that in a phone call with Chinese leaders, the two countries discussed increasing soybean imports to 20 million tons this year. The concerns about US soybean exports were alleviated, and the futures price stopped falling and rebounded sharply. In addition, the expected benefits of the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil also boosted US soybeans. At the same time, heavy rainfall in the Brazilian soybean production area and drought in the Argentine soybean production area promoted the price of US soybeans. Affected by this, the domestic soybean meal market rose slightly, but the increase was far less than that of US soybeans. At the beginning of the month, the low - level oscillation of domestic soybean meal was due to the decline in the premium of Brazilian soybeans, which offset part of the increase in US soybeans. On the other hand, the gradual increase in domestic imported soybeans narrowed the previously estimated supply gap, which alleviated the market's concerns about supply. Around the Spring Festival, with the rise of US soybeans and the news of domestic customs clearance and the resumption of imported soybean auctions, domestic soybean meal rose sharply. In contrast, the domestic rapeseed meal market was slightly stronger than the soybean meal market. The tight supply pattern of domestic rapeseed meal supported the rapeseed meal market. However, after the Spring Festival, the rapeseed meal market oscillated at a high level, and the market's expectation of the improvement of China - Canada trade relations increased, which suppressed the rapeseed meal market [9]. - In February 2026, the prices of major domestic and foreign oilseeds and oils showed different trends. For example, the price of US soybeans increased by 7.94%, the price of US soybean meal increased by 6.96%, and the price of US soybean oil increased by 13.08%. While the price of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 4.40%, and the price of domestic palm oil decreased by 2.44% [12]. 3.2 Protein Meal 3.2.1 Brazil: Abundant Soybean Harvest with Weather Risks - Various institutions have raised their estimates of Brazil's soybean production to over 180 million tons. However, the soybean production areas in Brazil still face weather problems. The southern part of Brazil is threatened by high - temperature and little - rain, while the northern, northeastern, and southeastern regions are affected by heavy rainfall, with frequent disasters such as waterlogging and landslides. The soybean harvest in Rio Grande do Sul may face the risk of a poor harvest, and crop experts have lowered the expected soybean production in Brazil by 1 million tons to 178 million tons [15]. - As of February 21, 2026, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil was 32.3%, lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso is faster than in previous years, but heavy rainfall has slowed it down, and the quality of soybeans has been affected. The harvest progress in Paraná is significantly slower than in previous years. Future rainfall may continue to affect the harvest progress and quality [18]. - In February 2026, Brazil's soybean export volume was estimated to be 10.69 million tons, still an increase of 9.9% compared with February last year. Brazil is facing the problem of delayed harvesting, and rainfall also delays port cargo transportation. In addition, there are logistics bottlenecks and port disruptions due to protests [23]. - Since mid - January, the premium of Brazilian soybeans has fallen from a high level. Recently, the appreciation of the Brazilian real has made the planting profit of Brazilian soybeans poor, and farmers' reluctance to sell has increased, suppressing the downward trend of the premium of Brazilian soybeans [25]. 3.2.2 Argentina: Risk of Soybean Yield Reduction - Various institutions estimate that Argentina's soybean production in the 2025/2026 season is between 48 million and 49 million tons. The rainfall in the Argentine agricultural production area is sporadic, and the drought situation cannot be significantly alleviated, which may lead to a decline in crop ratings and a reduction in soybean production [29]. 3.2.3 US Soybeans: Tight Inventory and Uncertain Planting Area - As of the week of February 12, the US soybean sales have completed 82.53% of the USDA's estimate for the 2025/2026 season. Although the export sales are significantly lower than the same period last year, the sales progress meets expectations. However, the export shipment progress is slow, and the real export in the future may still change. Non - Chinese regions' purchases of US soybeans have increased significantly [35][37]. - The US Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs and the US government's subsequent tariff measures may affect China's soybean imports from the US. As the proportion of US soybean export sales exceeds 80%, the probability of the USDA further reducing exports has decreased. If China's purchases increase in the future, there is a possibility of an upward adjustment in exports [43]. - In January, the soybean crushing volume of NOPA member enterprises was 6.03 million tons, the highest in the same period in history. The soybean crushing demand in the US remains strong, and the crushing profit has continued to recover since 2026 [45]. - The USDA estimates that the US soybean planting area in 2026 will increase to 85 million acres, but there are still differences in the market. Historically, the soybean planting intention in March is often lower than the estimate in the February outlook forum. Assuming normal weather conditions, the US soybean production in the 2026/2027 season is expected to increase, and the export and crushing volume will also increase, but the overall growth of inventory is limited, which will support the price of US soybeans [49][55]. 3.2.4 Domestic Soybean Meal: Narrowing Supply Gap with Uncertainties - As of February 24, the procurement progress of soybean shipments in different months is different. From February to April, China will receive 7 million tons of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans. However, the customs clearance time may increase, which may affect the arrival volume in March. Although the total supply of imported soybeans may be higher than in the same period last year, there may be regional structural shortages [57][61]. - The domestic soybean crushing profit has declined significantly. In March, the domestic soybean monthly crushing volume may be between 6.5 million and 7 million tons. The current domestic soybean meal inventory is at a high level in the same period in the past five years, and the unexecuted contracts are also at a high level. Due to the possible decline in the overall crushing volume in March, the soybean meal inventory will decline steadily [63][67]. - Although the domestic soybean meal inventory is high, the demand has not decreased. However, if the loss of pig - raising continues to expand, the demand for soybean meal may decline. In March, the supply of soybean meal is less than the demand, and the inventory will decline steadily. The domestic soybean meal may show a pattern of near - strong and far - weak, spot - strong and futures - weak, and the basis may remain firm [69][75]. - Considering the fluctuations of CBOT soybeans and the relatively strong premium of Brazilian soybeans, the theoretical cost of domestic soybean meal M2605 is between 2750 yuan per ton and 2950 yuan per ton when the crushing profit is zero. The domestic soybean meal market may maintain a strong oscillation, and attention should be paid to whether the main contract can break through 2850 yuan per ton [77][81]. 3.2.5 Domestic Rapeseed Meal: Awaiting Policy Changes - On March 9, the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed in China will be announced. The market speculates that the comprehensive tax rate may be reduced. After March, the supply of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in China is expected to gradually increase [82]. - The domestic rapeseed crushing profit is very high, especially for Canadian rapeseed. After the rapeseed arrives at the port and clears customs, the domestic rapeseed crushing volume is expected to increase significantly [83]. - The current domestic rapeseed meal inventory is at a low level, and the unexecuted contracts are also significantly lower than in the same period last year. Due to the poor import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the second half of 2025, the demand for domestic rapeseed meal has declined significantly. In March, the demand for rapeseed meal may recover. If the import of rapeseed meal recovers, the demand is expected to return to normal [88][90]. - If the China - Canada economic and trade relations ease and the import of Canadian rapeseed is smooth, the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen [97][100]. 3.3 Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - The international protein meal market in March still has weather - related speculation opportunities. The production of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina may be adjusted downward, and the premium of Brazilian soybeans has limited downward space. The US soybean market is in the resonance period of the old and new crop years. The export and crushing demand of the old crop year are good, and the growth of inventory is limited, which will support the price of US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal supply gap narrows, but there may be a regional and structural mismatch. The basis remains at a high level, and the market may maintain a strong oscillation. The domestic rapeseed meal market faces policy changes, and the supply may increase, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen [102][105][106]. - In operation, the idea of range - bound oscillation for soybean meal can be adopted, and the operation of buying at low levels can be carried out. An option strategy of double - selling in the range can also be adopted [107].