油脂周度行情观察-20260227

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Palm oil has a weak fundamental outlook, with its price being volatile in the short - term. Factors such as the seasonal production decline in Malaysia, changes in export volume, and demand in India and the domestic market influence its price. Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy [4]. - Soybean oil is trending strongly with a volatile pattern. The expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans, optimistic expectations for the US biodiesel policy, and the rise in crude oil prices support the demand for US soybean oil. The domestic soybean import volume is low, and the inventory is slightly increasing. Short - term volatility is expected, and the US biodiesel policy should be monitored [4]. - Rapeseed oil is also in a volatile state. The global rapeseed supply is relatively abundant, and the domestic rapeseed inventory has increased. Affected by the festival, production and demand are weak. The news of the US biodiesel policy boosts the price of rapeseed oil, and it is expected to be volatile in the short - term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Palm oil: After the holiday, palm oil opened higher. Malaysia's palm oil is in a seasonal production decline cycle. From February 1 - 20, production decreased month - on - month, and exports decreased compared to the same period last month. The trade agreement between the US and Indonesia is expected to increase Indonesia's palm oil exports to the US to 3 million tons, supporting palm oil demand. Indonesia may raise export taxes in March, which will support Malaysia's palm oil exports. During the Spring Festival, driven by the rise in international crude oil prices, the palm oil price increased. However, its own fundamentals are weak, with reduced demand for Indian Ramadan stocking and weak export data suppressing price increases. Domestic purchases in February increased, inventory is high, and demand is weak. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term [4]. - Soybean oil: It is trending strongly with a volatile pattern. There is an expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans. The US Environmental Protection Agency will submit a new biofuel blending volume authorization proposal to the White House on Wednesday, and the rule may be finalized by the end of March. There are optimistic expectations for the biodiesel policy, which supports the demand outlook for US soybean oil. At the same time, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has deteriorated, and crude oil prices have risen significantly, causing US soybean oil to strengthen. The domestic soybean import volume is at a low level, the arrival volume has decreased, and the oil mill's operation has gradually resumed after the holiday, with a slight increase in inventory. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and the US biodiesel policy should be monitored [4]. - Rapeseed oil: It is in a volatile state. The global rapeseed supply is relatively abundant. As of February 20, the domestic rapeseed inventory increased to 98,000 tons. Affected by the festival, rapeseed oil production decreased, and demand was weak, with limited fundamental impact. China's import of Canadian rapeseed has increased the rapeseed supply. The news of the US biodiesel policy boosts the price of rapeseed oil, and it is expected to be volatile in the short - term [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Observation 3.2.1 Supply - Palm oil: Domestic palm oil inventory is high. As of February 20, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 726,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25,300 tons, or a 3.61% increase [7]. - Soybean oil: Inventory is slightly accumulating. As of February 20, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 904,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 700 tons, or a 0.07% increase [7]. - Rapeseed oil: As of February 20, the rapeseed oil inventory was 247,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,000 tons, or a 0.82% increase, and it is at a low level year - on - year [7]. 3.2.2 Cost and Profit As of February 27, the CIF price of Malaysian - produced palm oil was $1,100 per ton, and the import cost price was 9,013 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 30 yuan per ton compared to before the holiday [8]. 3.2.3 Purchase, Production, and Sales - Palm oil: Domestic purchases in February were relatively high. From February 7 - 24, 2026, there was 1 new ship cancellation, with a shipping date in September, and no new purchases. As of February 27, the total trading volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key national oil mills this week was 1,499 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,499 tons [9]. - Soybean oil: As of February 20, the soybean port inventory increased to 5.594 million tons, at a low level year - on - year. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 37,200 tons, with an operation rate of 1.02%. After the holiday, the operation of oil mills gradually resumed; the soybean oil production was 7,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 313,600 tons. As of February 27, the weekly trading volume of domestic soybean oil was 54,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 49,000 tons [9]. - Rapeseed oil: As of February 20, the production of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 0 tons. During the festival, rapeseed oil trading came to a standstill. As of February 20, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 0 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 310 tons [9]. 3.2.4 Spot Prices As of February 27, the spot price of Zhangjiagang Grade 4 soybean oil was 8,630 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan per ton; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,780 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous month; the spot price of Nantong Grade 4 rapeseed oil was 9,840 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 70 yuan per ton [11]. 3.3 Malaysian Palm Oil Situation 3.3.1 Production and Inventory - Production: In January, Malaysian palm oil was in a seasonal production decline season. Affected by rainfall, the MPOB report showed that Malaysia's January production decreased by 1.5775 million tons month - on - month, a 13.78% decrease. Although the decrease was large, the production was still at a high level year - on - year. By region, the production in Peninsular Malaysia decreased by 16.65% month - on - month, the production in Sabah decreased by 8.96% month - on - month, the production in Sarawak decreased by 17.07% month - on - month, and the production in East Malaysia decreased by 11.09% month - on - month. With fewer working days in February, production is expected to continue to decline. The MPOA showed that from February 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 12.29% compared to the same period last month [14]. - Inventory: In January, the inventory decreased to 2.8155 million tons, a 7.72% month - on - month decrease. The de - stocking amplitude was higher than market expectations, but the Malaysian palm oil inventory was still at a high level year - on - year, with pressure [15]. 3.3.2 Exports and Consumption - Exports: In January, Malaysian palm oil exports were 1.4843 million tons, a 11.44% month - on - month increase. Due to the decrease in Malaysian palm oil prices, India's palm oil imports increased in January. In February, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased. ITS showed that from February 1 - 25, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 12.1% compared to the same period last month. AmSpec showed that from February 1 - 25, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 16.05% compared to the same period last month [18]. - Consumption: Malaysia's domestic consumption was 361,200 tons, a 14.52% month - on - month increase [18]. 3.4 Domestic Oil Situation 3.4.1 Palm Oil - As of February 20, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 706,400 tons, with high inventory. In December, the domestic palm oil import volume was 280,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,000 tons. As of February 27, the palm oil trading volume was 1,499 tons, at a low - level operation [20][23]. - As of February 27, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 283 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan per ton compared to before the holiday [26]. 3.4.2 Soybean Oil As of February 20, the soybean port inventory was 5.594 million tons, with inventory accumulation. The soybean crushing volume was 37,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6507 million tons, reaching a low level. The oil mill operation rate was 1.02%, the soybean oil production was 7,000 tons, reaching a low level. The soybean oil inventory of 90 sample enterprises was 944,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 700 tons, with a slight decrease [28][30]. 3.4.3 Rapeseed Oil As of February 20, the rapeseed inventory was 98,000 tons, and the rapeseed crushing volume was 0 tons. Affected by the festival, as of February 20, the production of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 0 tons, at a low level. The rapeseed oil inventory was 240,000 tons, and the inventory continued to decline [32][34].