6.85能守住吗？

Exchange Rate Outlook - The short-term RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable around the reasonable equilibrium level, with a projected mild upward fluctuation near the key level of 6.85[1] - The next significant level for RMB appreciation may be at 6.75, which marks the low point of the strong appreciation cycle initiated in November 2022[1] - Throughout the year, the RMB exchange rate is anticipated to exhibit two-way fluctuations rather than a unilateral appreciation trend[1] Central Bank Policy Actions - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a reduction of the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward sales from 20% to 0% effective March 2, 2026, to support foreign exchange market development[3] - This policy aims to optimize exchange rate risk management for enterprises and maintain the RMB exchange rate's basic stability[3] - The PBOC's intervention is prompted by the RMB/USD exchange rate reaching the critical technical level of 6.85, which could trigger unilateral appreciation expectations if breached[6] Market Dynamics - The RMB's appreciation is driven by a self-reinforcing cycle of exchange rate expectations, foreign exchange supply-demand dynamics, and actual appreciation[9] - An estimated $700 billion to $1 trillion in settlement demand is expected to be gradually released during the appreciation cycle, bolstered by strong trade surpluses and concentrated settlement demand[9] - Recent data shows that the bank's customer foreign exchange settlement surplus reached historical highs of $111.3 billion and $76.1 billion in December 2025 and January 2026, respectively[9] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include misinterpretation of policies, unexpected central bank monetary policy changes, and unforeseen actions by the U.S. Federal Reserve or regarding tariffs on Chinese imports[31] - The PBOC has additional tools in its exchange rate policy toolbox, including offshore central bank bills and macro-prudential adjustment parameters, which may be deployed if unilateral market behavior leads to excessive exchange rate volatility[16]