焦煤焦炭月度报告-20260227

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In March, coking coal will mainly fluctuate. The lower limit of the coking coal futures price is supported by improved inventory structure and policy expectations, while the upside is restricted by limited incremental demand from downstream after the Spring Festival [8]. - In March, the coke futures price will follow the cost - end of coking coal. The inventory accumulation pressure of coking plants weakens its price elasticity [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1后市研判 (Outlook) - Coking Coal: In February 2026, coking coal supply seasonally shrank due to the Spring Festival. After the holiday, supply will gradually recover, but the recovery is limited due to the late Spring Festival and the Two Sessions in March. Before the Spring Festival, upstream coking coal inventory decreased, and the inventory structure improved compared to the same period last year. In February, the coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills first increased and then decreased. After the holiday, the intensity of centralized restocking weakened, and subsequent restocking will be mainly for rigid demand. Due to the poor market outlook, a low - inventory strategy is expected to be maintained [8]. - Coke: The coke production of independent coking enterprises and steel mills remained stable. Independent coking enterprises have better willingness to start production than last year due to improved profits. Since February, hot metal production has slightly increased, and coke consumption is supported. During the Spring Festival, independent coking enterprises accumulated inventory, while steel mills consumed inventory. Coke enterprises are still on the verge of profit and loss, and steel mills face profitability pressure. The game between steel and coke enterprises intensifies, and the pricing weight of the cost - end increases [11]. 3.2焦煤基本面 (Coking Coal Fundamentals) - Supply: As of the week of February 30, the coking coal production ratio of 523 sample mines was 68.24%, up 19.35% from the Spring Festival, but 15.55% lower than the same period last year. The daily average output of clean coal was 649,000 tons, an increase of 190,200 tons from the Spring Festival but a decrease of 83,100 tons from the same period last year. The production ratio of 314 sample coal washing plants was 22.73%, 9.55% lower than before the festival, and the daily average output of clean coal was 169,100 tons, a decrease of 74,300 tons from before the festival. As of the weekly statistics on February 23, the customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu was 279,315 tons, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal also decreased significantly during the Chinese Spring Festival. Overall, coking coal supply seasonally shrank in February 2026, and the supply recovery after the holiday is limited [14]. - Inventory: As of February 27, the coking coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 2.5766 million tons, 1.3192 million tons less than the same period last year; the inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 2.9893 million tons, 72,000 tons less than the same period last year; the port inventory was 2.7197 million tons, 1.4413 million tons less than the same period last year. The coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 9.9886 million tons, 1.9978 million tons more than the same period last year, and the available inventory days were 11.68 days, 2.27 days more than last year; the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 7.9246 million tons, 236,800 tons more than the same period last year, and the available inventory days were 12.65 days, 0.38 days more than the same period last year. The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills first increased and then decreased in February. After the holiday, the intensity of centralized restocking weakened, and subsequent restocking will be mainly for rigid demand. Due to the poor market outlook, a low - inventory strategy is expected to be maintained [17][18]. 3.3焦炭基本面 (Coke Fundamentals) - Production: As of the week of February 27, the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 74.36%, 2.75% higher than the same period last year, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 642,900 tons, 41,000 tons more than the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 86.09%, 0.97% lower than the same period last year, and the daily average output of coke was 471,000 tons, 1,000 tons more than the same period last year. The coke production of independent coking enterprises and steel mills remained stable during the Spring Festival, and independent coking enterprises have better willingness to start production than last year due to improved profits [21]. - Demand: As of the week of February 27, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.3328 million tons, 534,000 tons more than the same period last year; the domestic sample coke consumption was 1.0498 million tons, 241,000 tons more than the same period last year. Since February, hot metal production has slightly increased, and coke consumption is supported [23]. - Inventory: As of February 27, the inventory of independent coking enterprises was 1.0782 million tons, 554,400 tons less than the same period last year but 250,200 tons more than before the festival; the coke inventory of steel mills was 6.7511 million tons, 58,400 tons less than the same period last year and 228,000 tons less than before the festival, and the available inventory days were 12.41 days, 0.99 days less than the same period last year and 0.29 days less than before the festival; the port inventory was 1.971 million tons, 69,500 tons more than the same period last year. During the Spring Festival, independent coking enterprises accumulated inventory due to poor output digestion, while steel mills consumed inventory [26]. - Profit: Since February, the coke spot market has not seen price increases or decreases, and the price has mainly remained stable. As of the week of February 27, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 7 yuan/ton, significantly improved compared to January and a reduction of losses by 64 yuan/ton compared to the same period last year. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 39.83%, remaining relatively stable but 10.39% lower than the same period last year. Coke enterprises are still on the verge of profit and loss, and steel mills face profitability pressure. The game between steel and coke enterprises intensifies, and the pricing weight of the cost - end increases [27].