原油日报：原油低开后震荡上行-20260227

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The report expects crude oil prices to fluctuate strongly. The outcome of the US - Iran negotiation on March 2nd is uncertain and will have a significant impact on oil prices [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - Eight OPEC+ member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. OPEC+ will consider increasing daily oil production by 137,000 barrels in April at the March 1st meeting. If the US attacks Iran, Saudi Arabia plans to significantly increase oil production in the short - term [1] - EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have increased significantly beyond expectations, refined oil inventories have decreased slightly, and overall oil inventories have increased significantly. US crude oil inventories have fluctuated greatly in February [1][5] - The US continues to increase military threats in the Middle East and sanctions against Iran. The US Treasury imposed sanctions on more than 30 entities, oil tankers and individuals on the 25th [1] - The third round of indirect negotiations between the US and Iran in Geneva ended. Iran's foreign minister said the negotiations had made good progress, with differences but approaching consensus in some areas. Technical negotiations will be held on March 2nd, and the key point of the Iranian geopolitical situation is postponed to next week [1] - Due to US trade agreement pressure, Indian refineries may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas [1] - Russia and Ukraine have not made substantial progress on core issues such as territory and cease - fire, and both sides are still attacking each other [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The main crude oil futures contract 2604 rose 0.45% to 488.4 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 470.8 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 494.5 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1625 to 38,973 lots [2] 3. Fundamental Tracking - EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand from the previous forecast of 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production from the previous forecast of 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day [5] - IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day [5] - On the evening of February 25th, US EIA data showed that for the week ending February 20th, US crude oil inventories increased by 15.989 million barrels, expected to increase by 1.481 million barrels, 0.77% higher than the five - year average; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.011 million barrels, expected to decrease by 0.56 million barrels; refined oil inventories increased by 0.252 million barrels, expected to decrease by 1.594 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 0.881 million barrels [5] 4. Supply - side - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that the average total crude oil production of OPEC+ in January was 42.448 million barrels per day, a decrease of 439,000 barrels per day compared to December, mainly affected by supply disruptions in Kazakhstan, Venezuela and Iran [6] - US crude oil production decreased by 33,000 barrels per day to 13.702 million barrels per day in the week of February 20th, and US crude oil production is near the historical high [6] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 21.391 million barrels per day, a 5.07% increase compared to the same period last year, and the increase compared to the same period last year has increased. Gasoline weekly production decreased by 0.18% to 8.733 million barrels per day, the four - week average production was 8.484 million barrels per day, a 1.47% increase compared to the same period last year; diesel weekly production decreased by 18.05% to 3.895 million barrels per day, the four - week average production was 4.352 million barrels per day, a 1.47% increase compared to the same period last year. The decrease in both gasoline and diesel led to a 0.89% decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [6]