PVC日报：震荡下行-20260227

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PVC price is expected to continue to be under pressure due to increased post - holiday PVC operating rates, rising social inventories, and continuous decline in raw material prices, but the decline is limited because of the expected policy and maintenance after the Spring Festival, and the potential continuation of the post - holiday export rush. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of downstream industries after the holiday [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region dropped by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate increased by 1.99 percentage points to 82.08% on a month - on - month basis, remaining at a moderately high level in recent years. Before the Spring Festival, domestic export orders decreased month - on - month after the price increase, but the previous export rush reduced the sales pressure of enterprises. The FOB price of Formosa Plastics' PVC exports for the March shipment increased by 40 US dollars/ton compared to February. Social inventories increased significantly during the Spring Festival and continued to rise this week, remaining at a relatively high level. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas is still large. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the real estate market needs time to improve. The comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, but the current production decline is limited, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract decreased in position, fluctuated, and declined. The lowest price was 4758 yuan/ton, the highest price was 4838 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4792 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 2.06%. The position decreased by 730 lots to 1,218,034 lots [2] 3. Basis - On February 27, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region dropped to 4635 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4792 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 157 yuan/ton, weakening by 7 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] 4. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: The PVC operating rate increased by 1.99 percentage points to 82.08% on a month - on - month basis, remaining at a moderately high level in recent years. New production capacities of Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), and Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year) were put into production in the second half of 2025, and Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) started trial production in December 2025 [6] - Demand: The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas. In 2025 from January to December, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The commercial housing sales area was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%. The commercial housing sales volume was 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%. The new construction area of housing was 587.70 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The completion area of housing was 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%. As of the week of February 22, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 92.37% month - on - month, and the transaction was sluggish during the Spring Festival [7] - Inventory: As of the week of February 27, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.71% month - on - month to 1.353 million tons, 58.02% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival and continued to rise this week, remaining at a relatively high level [8]