塑料日报：震荡下行-20260227

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The plastics market is experiencing an oscillatory downward trend. The supply-demand pattern of plastics has limited improvement, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to combat involution. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption of production after the Spring Festival, which is currently slow. Due to the recent commissioning of new plastic production capacity, a higher operating rate compared to PP, and the fact that the concentrated demand for mulch film has not yet begun, continue to narrow the L - PP spread [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 27, the number of overhauled plants changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 92%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week of February 27, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.58 percentage points to 18.22% compared to before the Spring Festival. The overall downstream operating rate of PE declined seasonally during the Spring Festival, and the downstream has not fully resumed. Petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons during the Spring Festival. The early - morning petrochemical inventory on Friday remained flat at 870,000 tons compared to the previous day, 40,000 tons lower than the same period of last year's lunar calendar, and is at a neutral level compared to previous years. The cost side is affected by the US - Iran negotiations, and crude oil prices are fluctuating significantly. There are new production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA put into operation in January 2026 [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastics 2605 contract increased in positions and oscillated downward, with a minimum price of 6,553 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,641 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,597 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 2.08%. The position increased by 15,671 lots to 566,078 lots [2] Spot - Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 150 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,470 - 6,920 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,230 - 8,860 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,800 - 7,940 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On February 27, the number of overhauled plants changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 92%, at a moderately high level. - Demand side: As of the week of February 27, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.58 percentage points to 18.22% compared to before the Spring Festival. The overall downstream operating rate of PE declined seasonally during the Spring Festival, and the downstream has not fully resumed. - Petrochemical inventory: It increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons during the Spring Festival. The early - morning petrochemical inventory on Friday remained flat at 870,000 tons compared to the previous day, 40,000 tons lower than the same period of last year's lunar calendar, and is at a neutral level compared to previous years. - Raw material end: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose above $71/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $705/ton compared to the previous period, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $685/ton compared to the previous period [4]