Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-02-27 11:28Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ctrip Group (9961.HK) [3][8] Core Insights - Ctrip Group reported a net revenue of 15.4 billion RMB for Q4 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 21%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 3.5% [1] - The company's adjusted operating profit for Q4 2025 was 3.2 billion RMB, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 20.8%, showing a slight decline of 1 percentage point year-over-year [1] - The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 2025 was 3.5 billion RMB, up 15% year-over-year, also surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates by 8% [1] - Ctrip's core OTA business achieved a total booking volume of approximately 1.1 trillion RMB in 2025, with annual net revenue of 62.4 billion RMB, reflecting a 17% year-over-year growth [1] Business Performance - The travel vacation and business travel management segments exceeded expectations, with international business performance being strong, particularly inbound tourism becoming a core growth pillar [1] - In Q4 2025, accommodation booking revenue was 6.3 billion RMB, up 21% year-over-year, while transportation ticketing revenue was 5.4 billion RMB, up 12% year-over-year [1] - The international OTA platform's total booking volume grew by approximately 60% year-over-year, with the Asia-Pacific region being the largest contributor [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Ctrip Group are estimated at 70.98 billion RMB for 2026, 79.45 billion RMB for 2027, and 88.96 billion RMB for 2028, with growth rates of 13.7%, 11.9%, and 12.0% respectively [3][10] - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to be 19.56 billion RMB in 2026, with a significant decrease of 39% year-over-year, followed by a recovery to 22.35 billion RMB in 2027 and 24.74 billion RMB in 2028 [3][10] - The report indicates an adjusted PE ratio of 13X for 2026, 11X for 2027, and 10X for 2028 based on the closing price of 400.4 HKD on February 26, 2026 [3][10]