养殖产业链日报：近月宽松明显-20260227

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean price has reached its low point and will show an oscillating upward trend in the future [1] - The short - term low of corn may fluctuate, but the downward space is limited, and one can consider replenishing stocks or buying when it falls [2] - Egg prices may remain weakly oscillating around the opening price in the short term, and more upward drivers require further clarity on chicken culling [2] - The pig industry is in a key game period between short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance, and the subsequent policy regulation and the de - stocking of sows from March to May will play a decisive role in the future market trend [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The soybean market is currently stable. Some grain depots have basically completed their purchases, and imported soybeans have risen. It is in the peak consumption and restocking season, with accelerated market supply circulation and concentrated demand. However, the supply - demand relationship is increasingly unequal, and there is no specific improvement direction in the short term [1] Corn - In the Northeast region, some deep - processing enterprises have resumed purchases, and some have raised purchase prices. After the holiday, the number of arriving vehicles at the port has increased but is still at a low level, with a small price increase. In the Shandong market, as the deep - processing enterprises gradually resume operation, the demand for corn has increased, but the supply is average, leading to a continuous small increase in prices. With the increase in supply, some enterprises have adjusted prices [1] - The short - term low of corn may fluctuate, but since the stage of maximum supply pressure has passed, the downward space is limited, and one can consider replenishing stocks or buying when it falls [2] Egg - Currently, all links have a certain inventory accumulation, and downstream demand is in the initial stage of recovery. Egg prices may remain weakly oscillating around the opening price in the short term, and all parties will mainly focus on digesting inventory. In February, the number of culled chickens may be greater than the supply of newly - laid hens, so the inventory of laying hens may decline to some extent, but the absolute value is still high, with limited support for prices. The driving force of the slight decline in inventory has been basically exhausted, and more upward drivers for eggs need further clarity on chicken culling [2] Pig - Official data shows that the inventory of breeding sows in December was 39.61 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29 million, and the trend of capacity reduction continues. The inventory of breeding sows in sample enterprises in January increased to 6.7123 million, an increase of 0.0353 million, indicating that large - scale farms slightly replenished at the low level. The survival rate of piglets dropped to 93.73%, a decrease of 0.41 percentage points, which may be affected by winter diseases and pose potential pressure on the supply of piglets in spring. In January, the inventory of live pigs decreased to 56.5446 million, a decrease of 0.3085 million, and the monthly slaughter volume was 13.149 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5704 million, in line with the seasonal characteristic of the slowdown in slaughter rhythm during the Spring Festival. The slaughter weight did not change much, and the supply structure did not have extreme adjustments [3] - The industry is in a key game period between short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. Although the far - month contracts have risen significantly today, the sustainability of this rise still requires the cooperation of near - month de - stocking. The subsequent policy regulation and the de - stocking of sows from March to May will play a decisive role in the future market trend [4]