热卷日报：震荡整理-20260227

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The hot-rolled coil futures market is in a stage of "weak reality, strong expectation" with short-term price pressure due to inventory accumulation and weak demand, but limited downside space supported by improved export profits, steel mill production resilience, and policy expectations. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish, and the pressure around the 30-day and 60-day moving averages should be monitored in the medium term [6]. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - 期货价格: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures had a decrease of 791 lots in open interest on Friday, with a trading volume of 277,047 lots, a contraction compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,197 yuan, the high was 3,220 yuan, and it closed at 3,215 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan or 0.25%. The short-term moving average fell back to the 5-day moving average, and there was still pressure from the 30-day and 60-day moving averages [1]. - 现货价格: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3,230 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - 基差: The basis between futures and spot was 15 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply: The current output was 3.0961 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 135,200 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 2,000 tons. In 2026, the output was slightly lower than the same period from 2023 - 2025, indicating that steel mills maintained production around the Spring Festival but actively reduced production capacity to cope with weakening demand [4]. - Demand: The current apparent demand was 2.6837 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 539,600 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 13,000 tons. The significant year-on-year decline was due to the seasonal impact of manufacturing shutdowns and stagnant terminal procurement around the Spring Festival, and the slight month-on-month decline reflected a weaker post - holiday demand recovery rhythm this year [4]. - Inventory: Factory inventory was 947,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 14,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 33,400 tons. Social inventory was 3.5737 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 169,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 134,100 tons. Total inventory was 4.5215 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 183,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 588,800 tons. Although the month-on-month increase was significant, the year-on-year decrease was still large, indicating less inventory pressure than in previous years [4]. - 库销比: The current inventory - to - sales ratio was 11.79 days, a significant year-on-year increase to 2.34. A high inventory - to - sales ratio means that the current inventory level is much higher than the demand digestion capacity, with a serious supply - demand mismatch, which will suppress the rebound space of hot-rolled coil prices until demand recovers substantially [5]. - Policy: Domestically, with the upcoming launch of the "14th Five - Year Plan" in 2026 and the approaching of the Two Sessions, market expectations for policies such as infrastructure investment, equipment renewal, and trade - in are rising, but the actual project implementation rhythm after the holiday is unclear. Internationally, the US imposed a 10% tariff on imported goods starting from February 24, raising concerns about global trade frictions and potentially suppressing export - oriented steel products. The People's Bank of China conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan 6 - month repurchase on February 13, releasing medium - and long - term liquidity and providing marginal support to market sentiment [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Positive factors: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support (the "14th Five - Year Plan" and infrastructure investment) [6]. - Negative factors: Slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, inventory accumulation suppressing prices, and increased macro - level disturbances [6]. Short - term View Summary - On Friday, the 05 hot-rolled coil contract first increased in open interest and declined, then decreased in open interest and rebounded, showing intraday consolidation. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the pressure around the 30-day and 60-day moving averages. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish. The current hot-rolled coil futures are in a game stage of "weak reality, strong expectation". The fundamentals are dominated by inventory accumulation and weak demand, putting short - term pressure on prices, but improved export profits, steel mill production resilience, and policy expectations provide bottom support, limiting the downside space [6].