郑棉：利多叠加下大涨，短期有回调压力

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Due to the overall positive outlook from the US Agricultural Outlook Forum during the holiday, short - term positive effects of US tariffs, improved medium - to - long - term fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton, and the favor of funds, Zhengzhou cotton prices soared after the holiday. The main contract reached a maximum of 15,665 yuan/ton this week. Although there was a subsequent correction, it encountered resistance around 15,300 yuan/ton, showing an overall strong trend. In the medium - to - long - term, with the improvement of supply - demand fundamentals, Zhengzhou cotton still has room for growth, and it is advisable to buy on dips. In the short - term, there may be correction pressure, but the amplitude is limited. Recently, attention should be paid to the resumption of work in the downstream after the holiday and cotton - related policies [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Global and US Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast - According to the latest forecast of the US Department of Agriculture's Agricultural Outlook Forum, in the 26/27 cotton season, the global total cotton production is expected to decrease by 3.2% year - on - year, consumption to increase by 1.2% year - on - year, and ending stocks to decrease by 5.2% year - on - year. The US cotton planting area is expected to increase by 1.3% year - on - year, the harvested area to decrease by 2.2% year - on - year, and the yield per unit to remain flat. The total US cotton production is expected to be 2.96 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%, consumption to remain flat year - on - year, exports to increase by 1.7% year - on - year, and ending stocks to decrease by 4.5% year - on - year. China's cotton production is expected to be 32 million bales, with a consumption increase of about 1% [5]. US Cotton Export Signing - As of the week ending February 19, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 57,400 tons, a 46% week - on - week decline (the signing volume in the week of February 12 reached a new high for the year), a 7% increase compared to the four - week average, and a 19% year - on - year decline. Among them, Bangladesh signed 16,000 tons and India 13,500 tons. The total signing volume of US cotton in the 2025/26 season accounted for 79% of the forecast, a 3 - percentage - point week - on - week increase and a 15 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease, with the decline narrowing by 1 percentage point compared to last week. The total shipment progress was 51%, a 1 - percentage - point week - on - week increase and a 3 - percentage - point year - on - year increase [7][21]. Domestic Downstream Situation - As of Thursday this week, the operating rate of yarn mills has recovered to 41%, and that of fabric mills to 36.2%. In terms of raw materials for yarn mills, the pre - holiday cotton yarn inventory of yarn mills has reached 35 days, the highest in recent years, and currently, the willingness to purchase raw materials is not strong. The current spot price difference between domestic and foreign cotton (1% tariff) is about 3,800 yuan/ton [8]. Price and Spread Information - Futures Price Changes: From February 13 to February 26, 2026, the price of the ZCE active contract of cotton increased from 14,740 yuan/ton to 15,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 610 yuan/ton; the price of the ICE active contract increased from 64.18 cents/pound to 65.37 cents/pound, an increase of 1.19 cents/pound [9]. - Spot Price and Basis: As of Thursday this week, the 328 cotton spot price index was 16,681 yuan/ton, a 562 - yuan/ton increase compared to before the holiday; the closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 15,350 yuan/ton, a 610 - yuan/ton increase compared to before the holiday; the basis between them was 1,331 yuan/ton, a 48 - yuan/ton week - on - week expansion. The C32S yarn price index was 21,870 yuan/ton, a 350 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase; the closing price of the Zhengzhou yarn main contract was 21,255 yuan/ton, a 725 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase; the basis between them was 615 yuan/ton, a 375 - yuan/ton week - on - week expansion [48]. - Domestic and Foreign Price Spreads: On Thursday this week, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the port delivery price index of imported cotton under the sliding - scale tariff was 336 yuan/ton, a 195 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase; the price difference with the port delivery price of imported cotton under the 1% tariff was 67 yuan/ton, a 104 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase. The price difference between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port delivery price was 2,780 yuan/ton, a 3,798 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase [51]. - Futures Spread and Processing Profit: On Thursday this week, on the futures market, the spread between the Zhengzhou yarn main contract and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 5,850 yuan/ton, a 60 - yuan/ton week - on - week expansion; the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure cotton yarn was - 2,180 yuan/ton, with the loss amplitude expanding by 325 yuan/ton week - on - week [54]. Warehouse Receipt Information - As of Thursday this week, the sum of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 12,416 sheets; the sum of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 52 sheets [62].