矿端再现扰动,锡价大幅拉涨

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short - term, under the background of supply tightening, tin prices are expected to fluctuate, with the price movement range between 360,000 - 500,000 yuan per ton. It is not recommended to chase high now. If the tin price adjusts later, it can be continuously concerned. In the medium - term, if the resumption and new production in the main tin - producing areas go smoothly, tin supply and demand may ease but still maintain a tight balance, with increasing callback risks and high - level fluctuations in tin prices. In the long - term, with obvious increase in mine supply and strong demand, the central price of tin is expected to show an upward trend [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On February 27, 2026, tin prices continued to rise sharply. The Shanghai tin main contract rose 8.88% to 453,240 yuan per ton. The main reason for the rise is the intensification of armed conflicts in Myanmar, which has caused concerns about tin ore supply. However, the conflict mainly occurred in non - main tin - producing areas, so it is considered that it will not have an obvious impact on tin ore production for the time being [3] 2. Fundamental Situation - Currently, the domestic mine end is in a tight situation, which restricts the output of refined tin. As of February 13, the processing fee for 60% grade tin ore is 10,000 yuan per ton, and that for 40% grade is 14,000 yuan per ton, remaining at a relatively low level. In January, domestic refined tin output was 14,382 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.74%; the domestic tin smelter start - up rate was 56.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9 percentage points. Recently, the explicit inventory of tin has accumulated. As of February 26, the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory was 11,556 tons, and the LME tin inventory was 7,575 tons [4] 3. Summary and Strategy - In terms of supply, the mine end is continuously tightening, resulting in raw material shortages for smelters and low tin ore processing fees, making it difficult to increase refined tin output. In terms of demand, the semiconductor industry maintains high growth, consumption in new energy vehicles and other fields continues to rise, and considering the need to rebuild the industrial chain inventory, tin demand is expected to continue to grow [5]