国投期货有色金属日报-20260227

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: な女女 [1] - Aluminum: ななな [1] - Alumina: なな☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: 文文文 [1] - Zinc: な☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: な女女 [1] - Lithium Carbonate: な女女 [1] - Industrial Silicon: ななな [1] - Polysilicon: な女女 [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides investment ratings and market analyses for various non - ferrous metals, giving advice on trading strategies and market trends for each metal [1][2][3] Summaries by Metal Copper - On Friday afternoon, copper prices increased with the trading sentiment of small metals. This week, the trading range was stable above the dense moving averages. Before Trump's visit to China, his attitude towards Chinese tariffs was relatively lenient. The impact of the low - tariff implementation period on domestic exports is a key concern on the demand side. The SMM spot copper price is 101,980 yuan, and the Shanghai copper discount has widened to 260 yuan. Global exchange copper inventories are high. It is recommended to continue the inter - month reverse spread of near - month contracts. Copper prices may still face pressure from social inventory rhythms when approaching the upper end of the current shock range [1] Aluminum, Alumina and Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum market oscillated today. The spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan are - 180 yuan, - 290 yuan, and - 145 yuan respectively. Post - holiday inventory accumulation will continue for a long time, and the current inventory is at a high level in recent years. The short - term domestic fundamentals are weak, while the expected reduction in overseas supply supports prices, so it is treated as an oscillation for now. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. Driven by the macro - environment and with aluminum prices at a high level, the seasonal spread between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum will continue to be weaker than in previous years. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, the over - supply situation has improved, and spot trading has rebounded slightly. However, with new production capacity approaching, continuous decline in ore prices, and rising warehouse receipts inventory, the driving force for the disk rebound is relatively limited, and alumina will mainly oscillate within a range in the near future [2] Zinc - Downstream consumption has not fully recovered, TC is at a low level, and the expected supply increase of overseas mines in 2026 is lower than expected. The fundamentals are both positive and negative. The Shanghai zinc market lacks a clear directional driver in the short term, and the disk is in a narrow - range consolidation at a high level. The trading enthusiasm of funds is mediocre. Wait for more macro - guidance and stay on the sidelines for now [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel continued to rebound. In the short term, nickel is affected by the rebound of the metal periphery and continues to rise. In addition, the expected reduction in Indonesian ore production continues to support the price trend, but the extremely high level of spot inventory is a concern. The Jinchuan premium is 8,550 yuan, the imported nickel discount is 50 yuan, and the electrowinning nickel premium is 100 yuan. The short - term trend is unclear, mainly oscillating [6] Tin - Shanghai tin increased with large positions, resonating with the sentiment of small - metal stocks. The increase exceeded 450,000 yuan, and the royalty increased rapidly. Pay attention to the trading rhythm of small metals. NVIDIA's quarterly performance exceeded expectations, but its related stock price encountered selling pressure in the short term. Against the background of rising storage prices, the sales of electronic and digital products led by mobile phones face great pressure to cool down, and traditional industries are also difficult to actively absorb high tin prices. On the supply side, the production in Indonesia and Myanmar was basically stable in February. Wait for domestic social inventory, pay attention to the trading rhythm of the industrial end, and patiently monitor the changes in the royalty of out - of - the - money sell - call options [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate oscillated. The market trading was active. Zimbabwe stopped exporting lithium carbonate resources, causing concerns on the supply side. The performance of the non - ferrous and precious metal periphery was strong. Downstream enterprises had sufficient pre - stockpiles, and they were highly cautious and had weak trading willingness when the lithium carbonate price fluctuated. Spot trading was rather dull. Technically, lithium carbonate oscillates strongly, and risk management should be noted [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. After the holiday, the trading activity of the disk was average, and the prices of some spot grades decreased slightly. Downstream silicone enterprises maintained production - reduction measures. According to SMM data, the operating rate dropped slightly to about 60% compared with before the holiday. Most enterprises reduced production, suppressing the demand for industrial silicon. The inventory of downstream polysilicon continued to rise, spot trading was dull, and enterprises had price - cut expectations. Overall, the demand for industrial silicon is still weak. There were production - reduction actions in Xinjiang before the holiday, and the short - term market driver is more focused on the supply changes in the north. The market is likely to continue to oscillate at a low level [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures closed slightly lower. The policy - end governance of the industry is more market - oriented and legalized. Leading enterprises issued acquisition announcements, and the market still has differences on the impact of production capacity. In February, the polysilicon production decreased significantly month - on - month, but the downstream silicon wafer production reduction exceeded expectations. Coupled with the continuous dull spot trading, the polysilicon inventory continued to accumulate. According to SMM, the current average price of V - type re - feed material is 52,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton from yesterday. The short - term market trend may be weak [10]