贵金属日报-20260227

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold is rated with one red star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1][4] - Silver is rated with three red stars, suggesting a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1][4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Overnight precious metals continued to fluctuate with significant intraday volatility. The Geneva negotiation between the US and Iran ended, with the Iranian foreign minister stating that the negotiation made good progress, there are still differences but consensus is approaching in some areas, and technical consultations will be held next week. Short - term geopolitical and tariff prospects remain uncertain, and precious metals are waiting for a clearer direction from risk events [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Information - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to the upcoming sixth round of China - US economic and trade consultations, stating that China is willing to work with the US to properly manage differences and expand practical cooperation through equal consultations [2] - US Vice - President Vance is unclear about Trump's decision on Iran. Possibilities include military strikes or diplomatic solutions. Trump is more inclined to the diplomatic option, which depends on Iran's words and deeds [2] - Fed's Goolsbee believes that interest rates can be cut but doesn't want to act prematurely before inflation eases. He is one of the most optimistic about rate cuts among Fed officials [2] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 4%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 96.0%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by April is 17.3%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 82.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.6%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by June is 43% [2]