纯苯苯乙烯2月报：装置供应回归，关注出口情况-20260227

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost support for pure benzene is strengthening due to factors such as potential production load reduction and geopolitical concerns affecting crude oil prices. The supply of styrene is returning in February, but the fundamentals are weakening, and the downstream demand feedback of the styrene industry chain is limited [10][42][66]. - With the slowdown of refining and chemical production capacity expansion in China, the new production capacity of pure benzene will slow down in the future, and the new capacity in 2026 is mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, roughly matching the commissioning time of new styrene plants [10]. - The global styrene industry is facing the dual pressures of capacity expansion and demand contraction, and the profit space is continuously squeezed. However, the shutdown of some foreign styrene plants is beneficial for exports [49]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Situation 3.1.1 Pure Benzene Cost Support Strengthens - At the beginning of 2026, pure benzene broke through the bottom - shock range. The collective rise of aromatic products is the result of the resonance of cost support, supply disturbances, and macro - sentiment. The long - term production load of pure benzene may be affected by the news of full - scale consumption tax collection in the naphtha circulation link [10]. - In the first quarter, the new pure benzene production capacity is 300,000 tons. In the future, the new production capacity of pure benzene will slow down, and the new capacity in 2026 is mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. The import volume of pure benzene is expected to decrease month - on - month in January - February due to the US tariff on South Korean aromatics [10]. - In February, the operating load of domestic petroleum benzene returned to over 80%, while the load of hydro - benzene decreased compared with January. Some plants have restart plans, and the inventory of pure benzene is still high [11]. - The escalation of the US - Iran situation provides support for crude oil prices, strengthening the cost support for pure benzene [11]. 3.1.2 The Weekly Weighted Operating Load of Pure Benzene Downstream Increased in January - As of the 19th of February, the weekly weighted operating load of pure benzene downstream was 76.98%, a month - on - month increase. The operating rates of aniline and adipic acid increased month - on - month, while the load of caprolactam plants decreased, and the spot supply was tight. Phenol - acetone enterprises had serious losses, but the industry operating rate was relatively high [23]. 3.1.3 Styrene Supply Returned in February, and the Fundamentals Weakened - In 2026, the planned new styrene production capacity in China is 700,000 tons, with a capacity growth rate dropping to around 3%. In February, the styrene industry was profitable, and the load increased month - on - month due to the restart of some plants [42]. - The port inventory of styrene increased seasonally, but the increase was lower than expected. The supply - demand structure of styrene weakened during the Spring Festival [43]. - The global styrene industry is facing capacity expansion and demand contraction, and many domestic and foreign production plants have reduced production or shut down. Some foreign plants' shutdowns are beneficial for exports [49]. 3.1.4 The Demand Feedback of the Styrene Industry Chain Downstream was Limited - During the Spring Festival, the operating rates of EPS, ABS, and PS downstream of styrene decreased month - on - month. The procurement demand of small and medium - sized downstream enterprises may gradually weaken, and the transaction volume is difficult to increase effectively [66]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of the three S products (EPS, ABS, PS) are still weak. The demand of ABS is expected to weaken due to seasonal factors, the willingness of EPS downstream to receive goods at high prices may continue to decline, and the supply - demand pressure of PS still exists [66]. 3.2 Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - The new production capacity of pure benzene in the first quarter is 300,000 tons, and the new capacity will slow down in the future. The import volume of pure benzene is expected to decrease month - on - month in January - February. The styrene industry is profitable, but the profit space is squeezed. Some foreign plant shutdowns are beneficial for exports [75][76]. - Strategy Recommendations: - Unilateral: Buy on dips after a pull - back. Without the cooperation of cost - side crude oil drivers, the upward driving force is not strong [77]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities and shrink the EB - BZ spread when the price is high [77]. - Options: Wait and see [77].