软商品日报：震荡延续-20260227

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton maintains a relatively strong trend, and subsequent attention should be paid to the sixth round of China-US negotiations. The market trading is relatively dull, and the consumer end such as textile enterprises has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and the replenishment has not been effectively started [1]. - The total sugar production (before ethanol diversion) in the 2025/26 sugar season is expected to be 32.409 million tons; the ethanol diversion volume is expected to be 3.1 million tons; the net sugar production (after ethanol diversion) is expected to be 29.292 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12%. Sugar is in a stage of bottom shock where the negatives are almost exhausted and the positives are yet to emerge [1][2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Related Catalog Cotton - From February 25 - 26, the public weight quotes of 3129B/3130B Xinjiang machine-picked cotton in inland warehouses in Shandong, Jiangsu and other places are concentrated at 17,000 - 17,300 yuan/ton; the public weight quotes of 3129B/3130B machine-picked cotton in southern Xinjiang supervision/delivery warehouses are mostly 16,415 - 16,600 yuan/ton, and the cotton price in northern Xinjiang warehouses is 100 - 200 yuan/ton higher than that in southern Xinjiang warehouses [1]. - Due to the significant increase in the cotton basis price quote, which is higher than the expectations of downstream textile mills and middlemen, coupled with the rising uncertainty of the Trump administration's tariff policy and the absence of the Xinjiang cotton target price policy, the market trading is relatively dull, and the consumer end such as textile enterprises has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and the replenishment has not been effectively started [1]. Sugar - The Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) released the third forecast data of sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar season on February 25. The total sugar production (before ethanol diversion) in this sugar season is expected to be 32.409 million tons; the ethanol diversion volume is expected to be 3.1 million tons; the net sugar production (after ethanol diversion) is expected to be 29.292 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12% [1]. - The estimated cost of processing and paying taxes for Brazilian sugar within the quota is 3,839 yuan/ton, and the estimated cost of processing and paying taxes for Brazilian sugar outside the quota is 4,870 yuan/ton. Compared with the spot price of Rizhao white sugar, the estimated profit of processing and paying taxes for Brazilian sugar within the quota is 1,641 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of processing and paying taxes for Brazilian sugar outside the quota is 610 yuan/ton [2]. - There are still doubts about the estimated sugar production in India, which determines how much sugar India can export. Sugar is generally in a stage of loose supply and demand. However, since the proportion of imported sugar in the first half of the year is not large, after the domestic market strengthens, the price difference between the domestic and foreign markets continues to widen. If the raw sugar does not rise substantially, the further upward space of domestic sugar will be suppressed [2].