油粕日报：延续震荡-20260227

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend before the release of imported soybeans from state reserves next week, supported by the strong US soybean exports, lower-than-expected Brazilian shipments in February, and the dry weather in Argentina [1]. - The oil market is cautiously optimistic, with limited downside space and the upside rebound height depending on policy guidance. Attention should be paid to the US - Iran negotiations in the next two days, which may affect the crude oil and oil markets [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - The 2025/26 soybean harvest rate in Brazil's Paraná state has reached 37%, with an estimated production of 22.12 million tons. The harvest progress is behind last year but normal compared to this year. The area of harvested soybeans is 2.16 million hectares out of the 5.77 million hectares planted [1]. - In Argentina, rainfall has been sporadic and insufficient to relieve drought, and crop ratings may decline, which is worrying for corn and soybean yields [1]. - US soybean exports are strong, and the lower - than - expected Brazilian shipments in February may lead to a decrease in arrivals in April. The dry weather in Argentina also supports the market's strong trend [1]. Oils - Indian buyers have cancelled 65,000 - 75,000 tons of South American soybean oil shipments, and it may expand to 100,000 - 120,000 tons in the next few days to lock in price - difference profits [2]. - The US EPA has sent a final biofuel quota regulation to the White House for review, which may have a significant impact on corn and soybean demand, biofuel production profits, and retail fuel prices [2]. - US soybean oil is supported by biofuel policies, while Malaysian palm oil is in a stage of weak supply and demand. The inventory in February is expected to decline again, but the large original inventory will suppress the near - month rebound height [2].