螺纹日报：震荡整理-20260227

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current rebar market is in a stage of game between "weak reality and strong expectation". In the short - term, the fundamentals are centered around the inventory depletion speed and the intensity of post - holiday resumption of work. It is expected that the price will maintain a volatile pattern, with limited upside space and the downside space supported by costs. If the demand significantly recovers in mid - to late March, it may be the key to break the price situation [5] 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract reduced its positions by 4,226 lots on Friday, with a lower trading volume compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 595,003 lots. In terms of the daily moving average, it broke through the 5 - day moving average in the short - term, but there was still pressure from the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. The lowest price was 3,047 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,070 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3,067 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.03% [1] - Spot price: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3,210 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 143 yuan/ton to the spot price, and the basis was still large [2] Fundamental Data - Supply - demand situation: - Supply side: Before the Spring Festival, the weekly output of rebar declined from the high level. In the week of February 26, 2026, the rebar output was 1.651 million tons, 52,800 tons less than the previous week and 414,000 tons less than the same period last year. The output in 2026 was significantly lower than that in the same period from 2023 - 2025, indicating that steel mills actively reduced production around the Spring Festival to cope with weak demand and inventory pressure [3] - Demand side: The terminal demand dropped sharply and was at a historical low. In the week of February 26, 2026, the current apparent demand was only 335,500 tons, 546,000 tons less than the previous week and 1.5716 million tons less than the same period last year, being at the lowest level in the same period in the past three years. This was mainly due to the seasonal off - season caused by the suspension of construction sites and the stagnation of terminal procurement around the Spring Festival, and the decline was far greater than in previous years, indicating a weaker expectation of demand recovery this year [3] - Inventory side: Both factory inventory and social inventory increased, and the total inventory was still lower year - on - year. Factory inventory was 2.3284 million tons, up 117,700 tons month - on - month and down 14,300 tons year - on - year. The production contraction but weaker demand led to the passive accumulation of factory inventory. Social inventory was 5.6776 million tons, up 727,900 tons month - on - month and down 614,100 tons year - on - year. Traders replenished their stocks before the Spring Festival, but the replenishment intensity was much less than in previous years. The total inventory was 8.006 million tons, up 845,600 tons month - on - month and down 628,400 tons year - on - year. Although it increased significantly month - on - month, it was still significantly lower than in the previous three years, indicating that the overall inventory pressure in the industry was less than in previous years [3][4] - Inventory - to - sales ratio: It was at a high level, reflecting the imbalance between supply and demand. The current inventory - to - sales ratio was 167.04, up significantly to 135.35 year - on - year. A high inventory - to - sales ratio means that the current inventory level is much higher than the demand digestion capacity, and the supply - demand mismatch is serious, which will suppress the rebound space of steel prices until the demand substantially recovers [4] - Cost and profit: The profitability rate of steel mills was stable, and the cost support weakened marginally. The profitability rate of steel mills was maintained in the range of 38% - 40%. The profit could support blast furnace production, but pressure emerged on the raw material side: the port inventory of iron ore exceeded 170 million tons, reaching a five - year high; the import of coking coal continued to increase, and the cost support weakened [4] - Macroeconomic aspect: In 2026, the policy expectations at the beginning of the "15th Five - Year Plan" increased. Projects such as central budgetary investment, underground pipe networks, and urban renewal were issued in advance, and the expectation of infrastructure support was enhanced. However, in the short - term, affected by the 10% tariff imposed by the United States on imported goods, the market sentiment was cautious. Coupled with the uncertainty of the demand recovery rhythm after the Spring Festival, the market entered a "policy game period" [4] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The Two Sessions are about to be held, the absolute inventory level is still at a historical low, policy expectations are rising, and the supply side is contracting [5] - Bearish factors: The terminal demand is continuously sluggish, the cost support is weakening, the inventory is continuously accumulating, the inventory depletion speed is slowing down, and the capital position structure is bearish [5] Short - term View Summary - Today, the 05 rebar fluctuated and consolidated throughout the day. It first increased positions and declined slightly, and then decreased positions and rebounded slightly in the afternoon, mainly affected by the meeting news in the afternoon, with some short - sellers leaving the market to avoid risks. The upper pressure should be focused on the intersection of the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. The rebar market is currently in a game stage of "weak reality + strong expectation". In the short - term, the fundamentals are centered around the inventory depletion speed and the intensity of post - holiday resumption of work. It is expected that the price will maintain a volatile pattern, with limited upside space and the downside space supported by costs. If the demand significantly recovers in mid - to late March, it may be the key to break the price situation [5]