供需趋于宽松下的豆类看空策略

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report formulates trading strategies based on the fundamental situation of loose global supply - demand of beans and strong supply but weak demand in China. It believes that the overall situation of the bean market is "easy to fall and difficult to rise", and recommends a short - selling strategy [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Bean Supply - Demand Pattern - Lack of Sustainability in US Soybean Strength and Emerging Supply Pressure: The current short - term strength of the US soybean market is driven by policy procurement expectations and speculative funds. However, the net long position of US soybeans is close to a historical high, and the new - season planting area is expected to increase to 85 million acres, limiting the upside space. The average cost in 2026 is about 1256 cents per bushel, which will be a significant pressure line [3]. - Brazil's Harvest Acceleration Leading Supply and Strengthening South America's Dominance: As of February 20, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was about 30%. The national output is expected to reach 180 million tons. Argentina's output is expected to decline slightly to 48.5 million tons due to less precipitation in the early stage [9]. 3.2 Domestic Bean Supply - Demand Fundamentals - Supply Side: As of February 20, 2026, China's port inventory was 5.594 million tons, at a relatively high level in the same period since 2013. Brazilian and US soybeans will be shipped in large quantities, and the supply pressure will increase from mid - April [13]. - Demand Side: The deterioration of pig farming profits has accelerated the de - capacity of the pig industry, and the demand for pig feed has become weak [16]. 3.3 Core Influence Variables - Policy Disturbance: Policy - related expectations from Sino - US economic and trade consultations are short - term emotional supports and difficult to change the long - term trend. The domestic reserve soybean auction policy may suppress the upward space of soybean meal prices [20]. - Cost Support: The rigid support of import costs limits the decline of soybean meal prices. The soybean meal has strong cost support at around 2700 - 2720 yuan per ton and is difficult to fall deeply [21]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Core Strategy: Short - sell B2605/M2605 contracts on rallies. Enter the market at 2830 - 2870 yuan per ton, set the stop - loss at about 2930 yuan per ton, and the take - profit targets at 2750 and 2700 yuan per ton. The position should be 20% - 30% of the total capital [23][24]. - Auxiliary Strategy: Sell the M2605 - C - 2850 call option, which has a high safety margin but limited returns [25].