2026年投资展望系列之十五：理财重迎“净值化”的变局

Group 1: 2025 Financial Trends - In 2025, the average yield of financial products dropped below 2.0% for the first time, reaching 1.98%, down from 2.65% at the end of the previous year[10] - The total scale of financial products increased by 3.34 trillion yuan, reaching 33.29 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.2%[2] - The maximum drawdown of financial products was controlled within 10 basis points (bp), despite increased volatility in net values[11] Group 2: 2026 Outlook - The trend of declining deposit rates is expected to continue, potentially leading to a further increase in financial product scales by 1.5 to 2.3 trillion yuan in 2026[3] - The financial market will face challenges from other financial products, such as dividend insurance, which may attract some funds away from deposits[3] - Financial institutions are likely to focus on stable asset allocation, with an emphasis on cash and deposit-like assets, while exploring multi-asset strategies through public funds[4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The contradiction between actual returns and liability costs is becoming more pronounced, with some products experiencing negative spreads[10] - The demand for financial products remains strong among clients seeking higher yields than traditional deposits but with lower volatility than public funds[2] - The shift towards "true net value" will require investors to adapt to increased net value fluctuations, posing a challenge for maintaining stability in liabilities[4]