科创、海外市场策略深度报告：春季行情之后，AI投资向何处走？

Core Insights - The report discusses the seasonal patterns in industry trend investments driven by economic cycles, emphasizing that "no industry, no bull market" is a key principle. The current bull market, which began in September 2024, is primarily driven by the AI upstream infrastructure represented by computing power [1][2][10] - The report outlines that the first wave of investment typically starts around mid-year, with a second wave at year-end, followed by high volatility in March to April of the following year. The sustainability of these trends depends on whether high economic conditions can continue into the next year [2][3][11] Seasonal Patterns in Industry Trend Investments - Historical analysis from 2013 to 2015 in the computer sector, 2019 to 2021 in semiconductors, and 2020 to 2021 in new energy shows clear seasonal patterns in investment opportunities driven by economic cycles [2][13] - The first wave of investment usually begins around mid-year, driven by the clarity of quarterly reports, while the second wave starts at year-end due to valuation shifts. High volatility typically occurs in March to April of the following year [11][13] AI Investment Trends and Main Lines - The current bull market cycle is characterized by AI upstream computing power, with significant seasonal patterns. The first wave of investment occurred from May to September 2025, followed by a second wave from November 2025 to February 2026 [3][43] - Looking ahead to March and April, the report anticipates a phase of volatility in computing power investments, influenced by valuation and crowding constraints. The sustainability of the computing power market in 2026 will depend on the continuation of high economic conditions [3][46] - The report suggests that the leading sub-sectors within AI upstream computing may shift in 2026 compared to 2025, with specific sub-sectors needing validation during the earnings season around May [12][46] Capital Expenditure Insights - The report highlights significant projected increases in capital expenditures from major cloud service providers for 2026, with Amazon expected to spend $200 billion (a 50% increase), Google between $175 billion and $185 billion (almost doubling), and Meta between $115 billion and $135 billion (close to doubling) compared to 2025 [46][48]