HTSC·2026-02-27 13:20Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" for the company [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Q4 2025, with a net win rate that exceeded expectations, leading to a total GGR growth of 14% quarter-on-quarter, outperforming the industry average of 6% [5][6]. - The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was HKD 4.4 billion, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of HKD 3.6 billion, indicating robust operational efficiency [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from the opening of the Capella hotel in February 2026, which is anticipated to enhance its high-end market position and drive steady growth in gaming revenue [5][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2025: HKD 49,242 million - 2026E: HKD 53,125 million (up 13.68%) - 2027E: HKD 57,896 million (up 7.89%) - 2028E: HKD 62,238 million (up 10.11%) [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: - 2025: HKD 10,674 million - 2026E: HKD 10,625 million (down 0.46%) - 2027E: HKD 11,753 million (up 10.62%) - 2028E: HKD 12,821 million (up 9.09%) [4]. - The report anticipates an adjusted EBITDA of HKD 159 billion for 2026 and HKD 174 billion for 2027, with a target price set at HKD 48.00 [9]. Market Performance - The company's GGR for Q4 2025 reached HKD 14 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14%, recovering to 100% of the levels seen in Q4 2019 [6]. - The company’s EBITDA margin for Q4 2025 was reported at 33.4%, indicating a recovery in operational efficiency [5][6]. - The company hosted approximately 350 entertainment, sports, and exhibition events in 2025, contributing to increased foot traffic and customer engagement [5][7]. Non-Gaming Initiatives - The company is actively enhancing its non-gaming entertainment ecosystem, collaborating with leading global entertainment firms to host major concerts and events, which are expected to drive customer traffic and high-end spending [7]. - The Capella hotel opening is expected to further solidify the company's market share in the ultra-high-end segment [7].