Xinda Securities·2026-02-27 10:24Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yancoal Australia is "Buy" [3] Core Views - In 2025, the company's performance was under pressure due to a decline in international coal prices, with total revenue of AUD 5.949 billion, down 14% year-on-year, and a net profit of AUD 440 million, down 64% year-on-year [3] - The average selling price of coal decreased by 17% to AUD 146 per ton, with thermal coal and metallurgical coal prices dropping by 15% and 26% respectively [3] - The company achieved a record high in coal production at 38.6 million tons, a 5% increase year-on-year, while sales were slightly affected by port disruptions [3] - Cash operating costs decreased by AUD 1 per ton to AUD 92, remaining in the mid-range of the company's guidance [3] - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of approximately 55%, with a total dividend of AUD 0.184 per share for 2025 [3] - For 2026, the company expects a slight increase in production and cost guidance, with a projected net profit of AUD 540 million, contributing approximately CNY 1.638 billion to Yancoal Energy [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline from CNY 139.1 billion in 2024 to CNY 131.8 billion in 2025, before recovering to CNY 138.2 billion in 2026 and CNY 147.7 billion in 2027 [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from CNY 14.4 billion in 2024 to CNY 9.5 billion in 2025, with a recovery to CNY 13.2 billion in 2026 and CNY 13.3 billion in 2027 [5] - The gross margin is projected to decline from 35.8% in 2024 to 30.1% in 2025, before recovering to 33.0% in 2026 and 34.1% in 2027 [5] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decrease from 17.5% in 2024 to 11.7% in 2025, with a recovery to 15.7% in 2026 and 15.5% in 2027 [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to decline from CNY 1.44 in 2024 to CNY 0.94 in 2025, before increasing to CNY 1.32 in both 2026 and 2027 [5]