携程集团-S（9961.HK）2025 年四季报点评

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ctrip Group (9961.HK) with a target price of 400.40 HKD, indicating a potential upside of over 15% compared to the benchmark index [3][12]. Core Insights - Ctrip Group reported a net revenue of 15.4 billion RMB for Q4 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 21%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 3.5% [1]. - The company's adjusted operating profit for Q4 2025 was 3.2 billion RMB, up 16% year-over-year, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 20.8% [1]. - The international business segment showed strong performance, with a 60% year-over-year increase in total bookings for the international OTA platform, making inbound tourism a core growth driver [1][8]. Financial Performance - For the full year 2025, Ctrip's core OTA business achieved total bookings of approximately 1.1 trillion RMB, with net revenue of 62.4 billion RMB, reflecting a 17% year-over-year growth [1]. - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2025 was 3.5 billion RMB, a 15% increase year-over-year, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates by 8% [1]. - The company had cash and cash equivalents totaling 105.8 billion RMB as of December 31, 2025 [1]. Business Segments - In Q4 2025, accommodation booking revenue reached 6.3 billion RMB, up 21% year-over-year, while transportation ticketing revenue was 5.4 billion RMB, a 12% increase [1]. - The vacation and business travel management segments exceeded expectations, with vacation revenue of 1.1 billion RMB (21% year-over-year growth) and business travel revenue of 810 million RMB (15% year-over-year growth) [1]. - The "Ctrip Old Friends Club" saw membership and GMV growth of over 100% year-over-year in Q4 2025 [1]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for Ctrip Group are projected at 70.98 billion RMB for 2026, 79.45 billion RMB for 2027, and 88.96 billion RMB for 2028, with respective growth rates of 13.7%, 11.9%, and 12.0% [3][10]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to be 19.56 billion RMB in 2026, with a significant decrease in growth rate due to base effects [3][10].