春节中观景气跟踪：春节旅游景气提升，科技和资源涨价

Group 1: Spring Festival Tourism - The Spring Festival travel demand significantly increased due to a 9-day extended holiday, with average daily cross-regional passenger flow up by 6.0% year-on-year during the first 24 days of the Spring Festival travel period [7][10] - Domestic average daily tourism volume and revenue during the Spring Festival increased by 5.7% and 5.5% year-on-year, respectively, recovering to 111.7% and 121.6% of the levels seen in 2019 [10][12] - Despite the increase in volume, the average daily spending per tourist was 149.8 yuan, down 11.3% year-on-year, indicating a need for improvement in consumer spending willingness [10][12] Group 2: Downstream Consumption - New home sales in 30 major cities increased by 47.7% compared to the same period last year, with first-tier cities seeing an 84.0% increase [18][21] - The average price of live pigs decreased by 0.9% week-on-week, attributed to a still ample supply [22][23] - The release of new real estate policies in Shanghai is expected to effectively stimulate pent-up housing demand [18] Group 3: Technology and Manufacturing - The prices of DRAM memory chips remained high, with average prices for DDR3, DDR4, and DDR5 increasing by 0.3%, 0.0%, and 0.1% respectively compared to pre-holiday levels [24][25] - The revenue of the semiconductor industry in Taiwan continued to grow rapidly, with storage sector companies seeing a year-on-year revenue increase of approximately 200% [24][25] - Lithium carbonate prices rose by 5.8% and lithium hydroxide prices by 5.1% due to increased expectations for downstream energy storage demand [26] Group 4: Upstream Resources - Coal prices increased slightly by 0.7% week-on-week, with port inventories continuing to decline [29][31] - Industrial metal prices showed a strong fluctuation, with copper and aluminum prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rising by 1.1% and 1.5% respectively [32][33] - International industrial metal prices also experienced upward trends due to expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [32][33]