“打破共识”系列之一：地产“落”，消费“升”

Group 1: Market Trends - The report suggests that consumer sentiment is expected to improve before the real estate market stabilizes, indicating a potential "U-shaped" recovery in consumption trends[3][16]. - Historical data shows that after a peak in the real estate cycle, consumer spending tends to rise before income levels improve, typically around the fifth year of the post-real estate era[4][17]. - The average disposable income growth rate in major economies tends to decline from 8%-10% to 3%-4% over approximately ten years following a real estate peak, with China's peak occurring in 2020[4][18]. Group 2: Economic Effects - The report identifies three main effects of real estate fluctuations: "income effect," "wealth effect," and "crowding-out effect," with the income effect dominating in the early years of the post-real estate era[4][18]. - The crowding-out effect, which suppresses consumer spending due to rising housing costs, is expected to weaken significantly in the next five years, allowing for a recovery in consumer spending[5][7]. - Evidence suggests that regions experiencing significant declines in housing prices from 2022 to 2024, such as Fujian and Zhejiang, have already seen improvements in consumer sentiment[7][79]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The report emphasizes that ongoing domestic demand expansion policies are crucial for stimulating consumption, with targeted measures such as optimizing personal consumption loan subsidies being highlighted[9][8]. - The transition to a new economic cycle is anticipated around 2026, characterized by a decrease in the savings rate and an increase in consumer spending as housing prices stabilize[7][78]. - The report warns of potential risks, including deviations from international experiences and unexpected changes in the real estate market, which could impact policy effectiveness[9][8].