2026年2月金融数据预测：社融增速或延续小幅下行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Forecasts for February 2026: 750 billion yuan in new loans, 1.99 trillion yuan in social financing increment, M2 reaching 349.2 trillion yuan with a YoY increase of 8.9%, new - caliber M1 YoY increase of 5.0%, and social financing growth rate of 8.1% [2] - New loans in February may be less than the same period last year due to weak real - economy financing demand, mortgage prepayment pressure, and weak consumer credit demand. It is expected that short - term personal loans will be - 30 billion yuan, medium - and long - term personal loans will be - 15 billion yuan, short - term corporate loans will be + 30 billion yuan, medium - and long - term corporate loans will be + 45 billion yuan, and bill financing will be + 30 billion yuan [3] - M2 growth rate in February may be stable. The new - caliber M1 growth rate is expected to be 5.0% at the end of February 2026, with little change from the previous month. M2 growth rate is expected to be 8.9% [3] - Social financing increment in February may be less than the same period last year, and the growth rate will decline slightly. The social financing growth rate may continue to decline in the next few months and reach about 7.5% by the end of 2026. The social financing increment in 2026 is predicted to be about 35 trillion yuan [3] - The adjustment of long - term bonds may be an opportunity. After the adjustment at the end of February, the yield of long - term bonds is expected to fall again after the sentiment stabilizes. The target points for the 10Y Treasury bond are 1.75% in Q1 and 1.70% in Q2. It is expected that the 10Y Treasury bond yield will fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.9% in 2026 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Forecast of New Loans - In February 2026, new loans are expected to be 750 billion yuan, less than the same period last year. Due to factors such as weak real - economy financing demand, mortgage prepayment pressure, and weak consumer credit demand, the new loans in 2026 may still be less than the same period last year [2][3][7] Forecast of M2 and M1 - The new - caliber M1 growth rate at the end of February 2026 is expected to be 5.0%, with little change from the previous month. The M2 growth rate at the end of February is expected to be 8.9%, relatively stable [3] Forecast of Social Financing - The social financing increment in February 2026 is predicted to be 1.99 trillion yuan, less than the 2.23 trillion yuan in February 2025. The social financing growth rate at the end of February is expected to drop to 8.1%. The social financing growth rate may continue to decline in the next few months and reach about 7.5% by the end of 2026. The social financing increment in 2026 is predicted to be about 35 trillion yuan [2][3][10] Analysis of Long - Term Bonds - The adjustment of long - term bonds at the end of February may be an opportunity. After the sentiment stabilizes, the yield of long - term bonds is expected to fall again. The target points for the 10Y Treasury bond are 1.75% in Q1 and 1.70% in Q2. It is expected that the 10Y Treasury bond yield will fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.9% in 2026. The allocation of ultra - long bonds by insurance funds may increase in March, and the yield of the 30Y Treasury bond active bond is expected to reach 2.2% [3]