Guohai Securities·2026-02-28 09:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu Group-SW (9888.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Baidu's general business revenue showed a quarter-on-quarter increase in Q4 2025, primarily driven by growth in Baidu's core AI new business. The general business revenue for 2025 was approximately CNY 102.5 billion, a year-on-year decline of 2% [5] - The core AI new business of Baidu has become a new core driver of the company's performance, achieving revenue of approximately CNY 40 billion in 2025, a year-on-year growth of 48%. This segment includes intelligent cloud infrastructure, AI applications, and AI-native marketing services [6] - The Robotaxi service, "Luo Bo Kuaipao," has accelerated its global expansion, with operational orders reaching 3.4 million in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 200% [7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, Baidu achieved total revenue of approximately CNY 129.1 billion, a year-on-year decline of 3%. The non-GAAP operating profit was approximately CNY 15 billion, down 43% year-on-year, and the non-GAAP net profit was approximately CNY 18.9 billion, down 30% year-on-year [4] - For Q4 2025, Baidu's revenue was approximately CNY 32.7 billion, a year-on-year decline of 4% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5%. The non-GAAP operating profit was approximately CNY 3 billion, down 41% year-on-year but up 35% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The company has authorized a new share repurchase plan of up to USD 5 billion, effective until December 31, 2028, and has approved a dividend policy to enhance shareholder returns [10] Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecast for Baidu is projected to be CNY 134.6 billion, CNY 147.1 billion, and CNY 154.9 billion for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively. The non-GAAP net profit is expected to be CNY 19.5 billion, CNY 23.9 billion, and CNY 27.3 billion for the same years [11][12]