宏观和大类资产配置周报：春节后首周人民币资产股涨债跌-20260228

Macro Economic Overview - The report indicates that after the Spring Festival, the asset allocation order is stocks > commodities > bonds > currency [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.98% and the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.08% during the week [2][12] - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic travel during the Spring Festival, with 596 million trips made and total spending reaching 803.48 billion yuan [5][23] Asset Performance Review - The CSI 300 Index increased by 1.08%, while the CSI 300 stock index futures fell by 0.14% [2][12] - Coal futures dropped by 5.38% and iron ore futures decreased by 5.56% [2][12] - The yield on ten-year government bonds fell by 4 basis points to 1.79% [2][12] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in stocks, focusing on the implementation of "incremental" policies [4][10] - A underweight position is recommended for bonds due to potential short-term impacts from the "stock-bond seesaw" effect [4][10] - Commodities are suggested to be held at a standard allocation, with attention to fiscal spending in 2026 [4][10] Key Economic Indicators - The report notes that the average annualized yield of money market funds fell to 1.01%, down 13 basis points [2][12] - The report also mentions that the average yield of bank wealth management products is at 1.85% [2][12] - The report highlights that the ten-year government bond futures rose by 0.18% during the week [2][12] Industry Insights - The steel industry saw a significant increase, with the sector rising by 11.8% [37] - The report indicates that the consumer sector, particularly in media, dining, and tourism, faced declines post-holiday [5][37] - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from policies encouraging the replacement of old vehicles, particularly in the context of new energy vehicles [32][40]